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Economic Policy:              News             Analysis            




News
You're Doing a Heckuva Job, Georgie: Debunking the State of the Union

In his Jan. 31 State of the Union address, President Bush spoke on many issues vital to the country including foreign policy, the economy, and health care. As is often the case in the annual address, the president offered far fewer specifics and suggested fewer solutions than many Americans would have liked to hear. Still, the president did manage to articulate a few specific points, some suggesting policies and others spinning the facts. To follow is a look behind a few of the more misleading statements made by the president in the address.

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Senate Pushes Through Corporate Tax Bill Over Holiday Weekend
The Senate commemorated the Columbus holiday Oct. 11 by holding a special session to pass the corporate tax bill, also known as the FSC/ETI bill. The previous week the House had passed the bill, which was designed to remove certain corporate tax subsidies on exports which had been ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization two years ago. The new tax breaks hit the nation at a time when corporate tax revenue has dropped to a historic low -- and the federal deficit has climbed to an all-time high. Last week, the Congressional Budget Office reported the FY 2004 federal deficit hit a record $413 billion. Read More

Federal Spending Hits Ceiling Forcing Treasury to Act
Last week, federal spending again reached the debt limit put in place by Congress -- the legal amount, above which the federal government cannot borrow. If borrowing exceeds this ceiling, currently set at roughly $7.4 trillion, immediate action is necessary. Treasury Secretary John Snow was recently forced to take action to ensure that normal monetary transactions can continue. Read More

A Tale of Two Deficits -- Trade and Budget
In the past few days, the government released separately two numbers showing record deficits:
  • The final fiscal year 2004 federal budget deficit of $413 billion -- the highest dollar value on record
  • A monthly trade gap in August rising to $54 billion -- the second highest on record.
Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Cyclically Adjusted Deficit Reaches Record High
The cyclically adjusted deficit -- that is, the deficit adjusted to remove economic fluctuations -- reached an all-time high of $374 billion in 2004 according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office. As a share of the overall economy, the cyclically adjusted deficit at 3.2 percent of GDP is at its highest levels since the early 1990's -- and has been exceeded in only 7 of the last 42 years (see chart below.) Read More

Congress Defies White House, Saves Overtime for Millions
Both the Senate Appropriations Committee and the House of Representatives have defied a White House veto threat and voted to save overtime rights for millions of workers. Read More

CBO Updates Budget Estimates: Massive Deficits to Grow
The Congressional Budget Office today released its semi-annual update on the nation's budget situation. The report confirms massive deficits for the current year and beyond. In addition, the report shows that deficits will not be "cut in half" in the next five years, as projected by the Bush administration. Read More

Mid-session Review Presents Misleading View of Nation's Finances
The White House's Office of Management and Budget recently (and belatedly) released its annual budgetary "Mid-Session Review," which attempts to put a positive spin on massive and worsening deficits, as well as the lowest level of revenue in nearly a half century. Read More

Mid-Session Review Confirms Continuation of Record Deficits
Washington, D.C., July 30, 2004 - The White House's Office of Management and Budget today belatedly released its annual budgetary "Mid-Session Review," which attempts to put a positive spin on massive and worsening deficits and the lowest level of revenue in a half century.
Download full press release (.pdf)
Read More

California Nonprofits Caught in Revenue Squeeze
The California Association of Nonprofits (CAN) recently completed a study of the impact on nonprofits of funding cutbacks in California. In the report "Holes in the Safety-net: Study of Funding Cutbacks and Safety-net Nonprofits in California," CAN found that a wide range of nonprofits in the state are squeezed between revenue reductions and increased demand for services. Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Mid-year Update
Halfway through 2004 seems a good time to review where the United States is on the economy and jobs situation.

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Beware of Bad Economic Policy - The Balanced Budget Amendment Set to Return

The long-ago defeated proposal for a balanced budget amendment is rearing its ugly head once again. Unable to pass a budget this year and desperate to create the appearance of being fiscally responsible, the Republican leaders in the House of Representatives are promising a vote on the measure. Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Corporate Profits at Record Highs, While Labor Compensation at 38-year Lows

Recent data show a major shift in the balance between corporate income and labor compensation. As a share of the economy labor compensation has not been this low in almost 40 years (since 1966), and after-tax corporate profits are at the highest levels ever recorded by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Employment Struggling to Recover
Employment increased by a steady 288,000 jobs in April, the Department of Labor announced earlier this month. The unemployment rate remains steady at 5.6 percent as well. Read More

The Estate Tax: By the Numbers

The Tax Policy Center has recently posted tables displaying the impact of the estate tax. The analysis shows just how few people would benefit from a repeal of the estate tax:
Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Jobs finally rebound, but remain 6.6 million below trend; unemployment rise
The economy added 308,000 new jobs in March, announced the Labor Department on Friday. The strong jobs number came largely due to the service sector which added 230,000 new jobs, while the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with no net new jobs in March. Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: Another Administration Projection Bites the Dust
Yet another economic projection by the administration is falling short – and in record time. Just a couple weeks after the publication of the Economic Report of the President, which forecasted 3.8 million* new jobs would be created in 2004, administration officials appears to be backing off the job estimates. The forecast was for 320,000 new jobs every month – a number most observers agree is exceptionally high. Job growth has not reached even half this level in any month over the past three years, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Read More

Economy and Jobs Watch: GDP, Employment, and the Federal Reserve

Release of two new pieces of economic data showed that the economy, while growing, is still below expectations.
Read More

2005 Federal Budget Continues Fiscal Decline

This Tax and Budget Staff Note examines the impact of the President’s budget on federal revenue and on the longer-term fiscal situation. The final section offers some of the implications of the recent fiscal decline.

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Economy and Jobs Watch: Lowering the Deficit Bar
According to the president's State of the Union address, the administration claims it will "cut the deficit in half over the next five years."
Read More


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