Jobs Picture Still Not Looking Good - October 6, 2003 Vol.4 No.20

October 6, 2003 Vol.4 No.20:

Published: 10/06/2003

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Jobs Picture Still Not Looking Good

On Friday, the Bush administration received what initially appeared to be good news on the economic front with its monthly release on employment. In September, the unemployment rate was unchanged from August at 6.1%, and there was a net gain of 57,000 jobs. The good news was that this was the first net gain in jobs in seven months. However, the jobs data continue to indicate that, in all likelihood, the Bush administration will likely be the first since Hoover’s to have a net job contraction during its tenure.

Even the “good” news is not much to crow about:

The US economy has now lost 2.6 million jobs since March 2001, the start of a recession that allegedly ended in November 2002.

The Bush administration projected there would be 344,000 new jobs each month under their tax cut plans. They were short by 287,000 jobs in September.

One reason the unemployment rate held steady is that a smaller percentage of the population was in the labor force. The labor force participation rate fell to 66.1 percent, the lowest since December 1991.

There are now roughly three unemployed workers for every job opening, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Employment in service-producing industries rose 74,000 in September from -12,000 the previous month. However, the increase was led by a 33,200 rise in temporary-help jobs. Manufacturers cut 29,000 jobs last month, the 38th straight decline and the smallest drop since July 2002.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance, reported each week, have shown virtually no improvement. In fact, the number of long-term unemployed (i.e., those who have been without jobs for at least six months) rose to the highest level in over a decade.

For more information, see the Jobs Picture from the Economic Policy Institute.