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Home :  Federal Budget & Tax : 
Federal Budget & Tax:      News     Blog     Background    



Wednesday, April 30, 2008

1Q08 Economic Conditions: the Good, Bad, and Ugly

By and large, the Bureau of Economic Analysts (BEA) at the Department of Commerce announced this morning an estimated GDP figure for the first quarter of 2008 of 0.6 percent -- the exact same figure as the last quarter of 2007 -- which pushes us back from the brink of "official" economic recession, though we are by no means out of the woods. The BEA report includes this summary analysis:

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, private inventory investment, exports of goods and services, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and PCE for durable goods. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Note in particular the reference to residential fixed investment, reflecting a contracting housing sector, falling home prices and sales, and a rapid increase in home foreclosures, which are reaching an alarming rate. Per a RealtyTrac report released yesterday:

foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 649,917 properties during the first quarter, a 23 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 112 percent increase from the first quarter of 2007 -- one in every 194 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

These two developments, taken together, may mean increased support for targeted housing-sector related legislation now moving through Congress. What it means for broader stimulus measures is uncertain, though the April unemployment report, due out on Friday, may have considerable bearing on prospects for such measures.

For additional analysis of the GDP estimate and its contributing factors by Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, see CEPR's GDP Byte, here



Posted by Dana Chasin, 11:54:01 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 30, 2008

Economy -- Real GDP Holds Steady at 0.6%: The BEA reports today that the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008. The fourth quarter of 2007 also saw a 0.6 percent growth rate. Growth in personal consumption, exports, and government spending were offset by declines in residential housing and personal expenditures on durable goods.

Gov't Performance -- Bills to Reform IG System Gain: A compromise may be imminent between Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D-MO) S. 2324 and Rep. Jim Cooper's (D-TN) H.R. 928 -- bills to reform the federal government's system of insperctors general (IGs). Cooper's bill passed the House last October 2007; it drew a White House veto threat. The Senate adopted the McCaskill bill last week by unanimous consent. Among other things, the bills would require agency heads to inform Congress 30 days prior to removing an IG from office and mandate each agency to maintain a Web site direct link to the agency's IG Office. Sunlight Spotlight.

Gov't Contracting -- Sen. Clinton Offers F.A.R. Reform: Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) introduced S. 2916, the Guaranteeing Real Accountability in Federal Transactions Act, extending Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) requirements to crack down on violations of federal criminal law by contractors or significant overpayments by the government and mandate that reported violations and overpayments be listed on the OMB Web site, www.USASpending.gov, that contains detailed information on government transactions that exceed $25,000. Clinton Statement.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:11:37 AM



First Jackson, Now Lurita Doan Falls

The long saga of General Services Administrator Lurita Doan has finally come to an end - the White House fired her yesterday. We have posted extensively on Doan's short tenure at the GSA on this blog, in our press room, and in the Watcher as well. It seemed there just was never enough print space to truly capture all the corrupt, illegal, and unethical behavior of Ms. Doan (also see here, here, here, and here).

My only question at this point is, why was she fired now? It's been 11 months since the independent Office of Special Counsel recommended to President Bush that Doan be fired for blatant violations of the Hatch Act - which prohibits the use of federal resources for partisan political activities. It certainly does seem like strange timing, but I suppose I should stop being surprised by the bizarre actions of this administration.

It is time to say farewell and good luck to Administrator Doan. Thanks, Ms. Doan, for wasting our money, helping out your friends with no-bid contracts, hiding the truth by interfering with oversight investigations, attempting to intimidate an Inspector General's office, violating federal law, keeping us entertained at many congressional hearings with your poor memory and shifty ways, and generally, making life interesting here at this watchdog organization. You certainly weren't dull.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:11:18 AM



Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Reported Details of War Supplemental Procedures

CQ is reporting that House Democratic leadership is going to move a war supplemental spending bill to the House floor next week. A Democratic aide says that the current strategy is to offer three votes: one war spending, one on domestic spending, and one on war policy. In the Senate, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is setting the state for floor action immediately following House passage.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 05:51:02 PM



Legislative Means to Address Economic Conditions
Too Slow for a Slowdown?

In The Checks Are Coming! The Checks Are Coming!, Stan Collender questions the efficacy of legislative measures to stimulate the economy in the short-term.

He argues that, regardless of the relative bang-for-the-buck of certain measures as opposed to others, all such measures are too slow to be effective -- not because checks or unemployment insurance boosts or food stamps are slow to work, but because the legislative process and the operations of government are themselves too slow. Witness the three months it's taken for Treasury to get the checks out the door that Congress and the President agreed to in February.

Barring legislative action providing short-term boosts to the economy, where can we turn to address oncoming recessions? Depends what you mean by "we." Unless you are the president or maybe Treasury Secretary, lots of luck to you in negotiating the requisite monetary policy with the Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed, by design (by congressional design, ironically) operates without the consent of the governed. And monetary tools are far less flexible and targeted than fiscal ones, however rapid and powerful they may be.

Maybe the solution is, as Collender suggests, improving the operations of government so that Treasury and the other agencies pre-automate legislatively (i.e., democratically) mandated means of addressing the particularities of the slowdown or recession in question.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 01:57:14 PM



Recessions Are Local

The BEA will release 1st quarter GDP figures tomorrow, and the BLS will release employment data on Friday. To be sure, these will be carefully-watched figures as the nation holds its breath waiting to see if we're moving closer to the R-word.

But these are national data, and it becomes easy to overlook the fact that some areas within the nation are currently in throes of economic turmoil. This morning's release of metropolitan employment data reminds us that, regardless of what happens in aggregate, many Americans are already living a recession.

Unemployment rates were higher in March than a year earlier in 309 of the 369 metropolitan areas, lower in 40 areas, and unchanged in 20 areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Fourteen areas, 12 of which are located in California, recorded jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, while 9 areas registered rates below 3.0 percent. The national unemployment rate in March was 5.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 4.5 percent a year earlier.

In March, 45 metropolitan areas reported unemployment rates of at least 7.0 percent, up from 26 areas a year earlier, while 69 areas recorded rates below 4.0 percent, down from 128 areas in March 2007....Overall, 193 areas recorded unemployment rates below the U.S. figure of 5.2 percent, 163 areas had higher rates, and 13 areas had the same rate.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 10:37:57 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 29, 2008

Unemployment -- Job Loss Strain on Gov't Health Programs: A Kaiser Family Foundation study released yesterday indicates that each percentage-point rise in unemployment during the economic downturn would swell the uninsured by 1.1 million, the New York Times reports. Such an increased in the number of uninsured would require an additional $3.4 billion in spending for Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program, with $1.4 billion of it from the states. Story.

Interest Rates -- Fed on Horns of Stimulus/Inflation Dilemma: The Federal Reserve Bank will decide today whether to cut a key interest rate for the sixth time in a row, as a way to add liquidity to and stimulate the economy. A small, quarter-point cut is expected, down to two percent. The Fed has already cut rates by three percent since last summer. But inflation is now a countervailing concern for the Fed: "Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen [even as] the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters." Analysis.

War Supplemental -- Food Riots Prompt Aid Request: Responding to international strife caused by rapidly increasing food prices, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) is asking for $200 million in foreign food aid to be added to an anticipated war supplemental. In recent months, food shortages and rising prices have caused shortages in 36 nations and sparked riots in several. The funds would be in addition to $350 million in supplemental food aid requested by President Bush.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:44:32 AM



Monday, April 28, 2008

Furman on Fixing Fiscal Failures
News You Can Use. If You Happen To Be President

Earlier this month, Jason Furman, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote a piece in Slate about "Repairing Some Of The Worst Bush Administration Screw-Ups" in the area of fiscal policy.

The Four-Step Program he outlines:

  • Step 1: Fully account for all costs in the budget
  • Step 2: Stick to these costs, with a veto pen if necessary
  • Step 3: Be ready to work together with the other party to reduce the deficit.
  • Step 4: Don't forget what really counts:

The stabilization of the long-run deficit is inevitable—policymakers have no choice but to abide by the iron laws of arithmetic. But the most important budgetary issues are the choices policymakers make about how much to invest in research, how much to spend ensuring that everyone has health insurance, and what is done to make our nation more secure. Making these choices will be easier if we start to fix our bigger fiscal problems.

I like Furman's optimism about the inevitability of policymakers abiding by the iron laws of arithmetic. Do I share it? Not fully. Looking back at history, including the history of fiscal policy, it seems clear that the inevitability of facing up to national challenges (even to the iron law of arithmetic) depends in large measure on who happens to be president.

Here's to hoping that the next one listens to Jason Furman.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 03:32:04 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 27, 2008

Stimulus 1.0 -- First Checks Going Out Today: The first of 130 million tax "rebate" checks provided under the first stimulus package signed in February will be going out today, earlier than previously announced. The rebates - up to $600 for an individual, $1,200 for a couple and an additional $300 for each dependent child are the biggest part of $168 billion stimulus. Story.

War Supplemental -- Bill Could Top $200 Bn.: According to BNA ($), the House is mulling a war funding bill that would include the remainder of the president's FY 2008 request ($108 billion), his FY 2009 partial-year request ($70 billion), and some $15 billion in domestic spending that may include an extension of unemployment benefits and increased funding for a childhood nutrition program.

Taxes -- Senate Panels Agree on FAA, Highway Package: Leaders of the Senate Finance and Commerce Committees announced late Friday an agreement on a tax package to boost funding for the Federal Aviation Administration and ensure solvency for the Highway Trust Fund. Among the provisions are a "truth in passenger tax disclosures" provision to prevent airlines from presenting fuel surcharges as government taxes and tax credit bonds for rail infrastructure. The package has not yet been scored. American Infrastructure Investment and Improvement Act.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:03:48 AM



Wesley Snipes Gets Three Years for Tax Evasion

On Friday, actor Wesley Snipes was sentenced to three years in prison for failing to pay federal income taxes for close to ten years. Snipes could have been sentenced to up to 16 years if he had been convicted of all charges, but he was not convicted of tax fraud and conspiracy back in February. He owes close to $20 million according to the IRS. Snipes maintains he was dupped, but the judge thought otherwise:

But U.S. District Judge William Terrell Hodges said Snipes exhibited a "history of contempt over a period of time" for U.S. tax laws, and granted prosecutors the sentence they requested — one year for each of Snipes' convictions of willfully failing to file a tax return from 1999-2001.

The Snipes case is the highest profile tax evasion prosecution since the billionaire Leona Helmsley was convicted of tax fraud in 1989.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:24:58 AM



Friday, April 25, 2008

The Magic of the Market

In the WaPo, Christopher Lee reports on how the President's Competitive Sourcing Initiative® is going.

"The competitive sourcing initiative did little to improve management, produced a ton of worthless paper, demoralized thousands of workers and cost a bundle, all to prove that federal employees are pretty good after all," said Paul C. Light, a professor of government at New York University's Wagner Graduate School of Public Service.

The president's program was implemented to bring the magical cost-cutting powers of the market to the federal government by pitting government employees against private contractors in a bidding war. So far, 83 percent of competitively-sourced have been won by federal workers.

After $225 million in administrative costs and five years of putting decent-paying, benefit-providing jobs on the auction block, the Bush Administration has shown that the federal government is better at providing federal-government services more efficiently than most private firms.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 05:47:30 PM



Fiscal Policy Final Exam

OK, folks, it's finals time. Two-part question. The following statement was propounded by former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin on a recent conference call in his capacity as economic adviser to one of the three presidential candidates.

In the federal budget if you provide an earmark, that money gets spent. In the way the baseline is constructed it stays in there forever. It goes up at the rate of inflation. So you could as of 2006 find in the baseline $60 billion in spending that got introduced as earmarks and exists because of that. In the years since there have been an additional $35 billion in earmarks. So we are now at the point if you stare at a federal discretionary spending budget you find a $100 billion that wouldn't be there is it wasn't for earmarks.

1. True or false?

The candidate in question has said that $60 billion dollars a year can be saved from the federal budget by reducing earmarks. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 14 in Home Alone on Earmarks, "[i]n fiscal 2008, there were 11,747 appropriation earmarks totaling $16.8. That is down from a peak in 2005, when there were nearly 13,500 earmarks totaling almost $19 billion."

2. Who is that presidential candidate?



Posted by Dana Chasin, 12:58:13 PM



Stumped.
Fiscal Policy Discourse in the Presidential Campaign

Is it discouraging or inconsequential that all of the three leading presidential candidates have been espousing inchoate fiscal policy from the stump, making claims sometimes divorced from reality, offering precious little to address the country's ailing fiscal condition?

On the one hand, it must be counted discouraging that American voters are not being treated to straight talk about the tax and budget challenges facing the nation, after what the New York Times, in an editorial yesterday, called "rising budget deficits and mounting debt from nearly eight years of profligate spending and tax breaks for the wealthy."

On the other hand, it may not matter. Any rational candidate must live in mortal fear of committing the notorious "Mondale sin" of 1984, when that year's Democratic presidential candidate suggested that a return to fiscal responsibility would involve raising taxes and went on to lose 49 of 50 states that November. Candidate Roosevelt mentioned the New Deal only once during the campaign of 1932.

Not much is heard on the hustings of the increase in the national debt from $5.5 trillion when President Bush took office to a projected $9.5 trillion on the day he departs next January. Debate moderators haven't asked how the candidates plan to deal with this and the candidates have not articulated solutions.

Bad enough. But as the Times editorial points out, what we are getting from the candidates on fiscal policy sometimes makes Charlie Gibson look like Larry Summers. According to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ):

today's superlow tax rates on capital gains are important for working people with 401(k) retirement plans. Memo to Mr. McCain: 401(k) savers get no benefit from a low capital gains rate. All of the money in those plans is eventually taxed at ordinary income tax rates, not at the special reduced rate for capital gains.

Both the Democratic candidates have promised not to raise taxes on middle-class Americans making $200,000 (Sen. Obama) and $250,000 (Sen. Clinton) a year. What, then, of Obama's promise to lift the current $96,000 cap on social security taxes? And what of Clinton's promise not to raise middle-class taxes to pay for her new health care and other programs when she doesn't spell out how she will pay for them?

As the Times concludes:

Perhaps the candidates are afraid the American people can't handle the truth about what it would take to meet the nation's economic challenges. Or perhaps they are underestimating those challenges.

In either case, it's hardly confidence-inspiring at a time of war and economic crisis.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:21:53 AM



Federal Decisions Impact State Budgets

There were a slew of articles today from around the country about the impact of federal budget cuts on local communities, particularly for local education programs (see below). These articles detail the impact of cuts on a wide variety of programs and constituencies, from summer school to youth vocational education, from a rape crisis hotline to arts and music classes, from school counseling to early-reading instruction.

Many of these cuts are finally being felt at the local level, despite being approved by Congress up to a year ago. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released a report last week stating that 20 states have made or proposed budget cuts that threaten vital services, including public health programs (13 states), services for the elderly and disabled (five states), K-12 education (nine states), and college and university programs (12 states).

The CBPP report has an excellent passage about the importance of federal assistance during economic downturns - particularly in supporting state level investments:

The federal government, which can - and arguably should - run deficits during troubled economic times, can help states minimize damaging budget cuts by providing assistance to the states, as it did in the recession in the early part of this decade. Federal assistance can lessen the extent to which states take these harmful, "pro-cyclical" actions and prevent budget cuts in vital services residents need.

Hopefully those in Congress who are crafting the FY 2009 budget resolution this week will remember their decisions on funding will have consequences for real people down the road. Hopefully they will make the choice to invest in our communities by restoring some federal funding in areas that have been drastically under funded the last few years and help the states support its services when people most need them.

Chicago Tribune: Federal funding cuts could devastate rape crisis hot lines
Chicago Daily Herald: Fox Valley jobs program, participants face tough times with budget cuts
San Diego Union Tribune: School board approves cuts to budget and loss of jobs
Charlottesville, VA: Madison Co. School Budget Cuts
Baltimore Sun: Lean budget proposal unveiled in Carroll
Arizona Republic: State universities await ruling on budget cuts



Posted by Adam Hughes, 10:13:50 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 25, 2008

Economy -- Home Sales, Values Plunge: A key cause of the economic slowdown worsened last month as the Departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development reported yesterday that home sales fell to their lowest levels in over 16 years. Home sales have dropped 36.6 percent in the last twelve months. Home prices are down 11.3 percent during the same period. Among the fiscal impacts of the housing sector contraction: state coffers suffer as property tax revenues shrink along with values and foreclosures reduce the net number of homeowners. Sad Stats.

Budget -- Resolution Closer; Instructions Not Included: Prospects for an end to the month-long House-Senate budget resolution conference impasse improved, as negotiators indicated yesterday that the Blue Dogs had agreed to drop demands for reconciliation instructions to pay for the $70 billion AMT patch provision. This likely means the Senate's $35 billion stimulus reserve account instruction will be dropped. Conferees still need to work out a discretionary spending cap.

Taxes -- JCT Scores Housing Assistance Tax Act: The bill, approved last week by the House Ways & means Committee, which provides a low-income housing credit, tax-exempt housing bonds, and refundable credits for first-time home buyers, "would reduce budget deficits (or increase surpluses) by a total of $279 million over the 2008-2013 period and $18 million over the 2008-2018 period," per CBO. JCT Score. CBO Analysis.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:41:49 AM



Thursday, April 24, 2008

Feds Return Virtual Border Fence to Boeing

Here's a short item reported ($) in CongressDaily yesterday afternoon that as escaped most mainstream media coverage. Apparently the federal government, specifically officials at the Customs and Border Protection office, have decided to scrap continued work on a brand new, $20 million virtual fence along the Arizona-Mexico border. The initiative, called Project 28, was awarded to Boeing, Inc., as part of a $67 million contract to provide advanced border protection technologies.

Project 28 has experienced repeated delays (in June 2007 and again in February 2008) due to technical problems and software glitches since it began about 18 months ago, and now that the government has accepted the program infrastructure from Boeing, it found out it doesn't work. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has testified before Congress that the technology provided under the contract "did not fully meet user needs and the project's design will not be used as the basis for future" development of border protection technologies.



Does Boeing owe the government $20 million? Find out...

Posted by Adam Hughes, 05:45:15 PM



Medicare Regs Bill Could be Tucked into War Sup

CongressDaily is reporting ($) that language from a Medicaid bill that was overwhelmingly passed by the House yesterday may be added to the FY08/09 war supplemental bill. By placing the Medicaid language inside the spending bill, Congress would not only force President Bush to veto a war spending bill for the sake of rejecting changes to Medicaid, but it could also make Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) think twice about mounting a filibuster against it.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 04:03:35 PM



The Policy Implications of Statistics and Semantics
Go Figure

The Commerce Department announced this morning that home sales in the U.S. had slumped in March to their lowest levels in 167 months, or nearly 17 years. Today's figures are one of the last that may influence forecasts ahead of the Commerce Department's advance report on first-quarter gross domestic product due next Wednesday. Growth slowed to a 0.3 percent annual pace from January through March, the weakest in more than five years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Story.

A gain of 0.3 percent GDP growth makes it a close call. If the first quarter GDP figures show negative growth, then we are offically on a "recession" track. Positive growth figures, and President Bush will be technically correct for now, in saying our economy is in a slowdown. But if the numbers come up recession, the already growing calls for a second stimulus package will grow exponentially.

And next Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment figures for the month of April. Some, particularly those in the administration, have argued that unemployment in the current 5 percent range is not sufficiently alarming to warrant extensions or increases in unemployment insurance benefits. So these figures, too, will be closely watched, particularly by policymakers designing stimulus packages.

Can semantics actually determine policy? Are policymakers really numerologists?

Such is the symbolism of statistics -- a number is worth a thousand words.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 12:17:22 PM



House Moves Bill to Stop Medicaid Changes

Yesterday the House passed a bill that would stop the Bush administration from going forward with several regulations intended to cut Medicaid services. The administration developed the regulations under the guise of "fiscal integrity," arguing state Medicaid programs are using loopholes to inappropriately claim federal funds. Bush has threatened to veto the bill.

Fortunately, the bill passed the House in a 349-62 vote which, if the margin holds, would be enough to override a veto. State governments also support the bill. According to the Associated Press, "The governors of all 50 states…oppose the rules."

If all this bipartisanship and widespread agreement make you uncomfortable, fear not — the U.S. Senate is on the case.

Click here to read more

Posted by Matt Madia, 11:25:23 AM



A Different Kind of Veto Threat

This week, Democratic Congressional leadership is mulling options for attaching domestic spending provisions to a forthcoming war supplemental bill. OMB Director Jim Nussle has warned Congress that a war spending bill that exceeds the president's remaining FY 2008 request ($108 billion) will be vetoed.

President Bush has shown that when it comes to domestic spending bills, his threats are credible -- witness last year's Labor-H appropriations bill and SCHIP enhancement. But when it comes to war funding, it's a different story. On May 1 last year, the president vetoed a war supplemental bill (H.R. 1591) because, according to this SAP, it contained not only troop withdrawal language, but also "billions in unrequested spending that is largely unjustified and non-emergency." The bill would have funded the wars at about $100 billion and domestic spending at about $24 billion.

After adoption by the House and Senate, the bill was vetoed as promised. Congress promptly sent Bush another war supplemental (H.R. 2206) containing similar levels for domestic and war spending, but it did lack troop withdrawal language. The president issued another veto threat citing concerns about "billions of dollars of spending and other provisions completely unrelated to the war." Despite that threat, the president signed the bill.

This should inform Congress's deliberations regarding how much domestic spending it can attach to a war supplemental. Put bluntly: It shouldn't be shy. At. All. There's plenty of reason to believe that the president's unquenchable thirst for war-making money would render his veto hand limp before a laundry list of much-needed domestic spending provisions.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 10:38:24 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 24, 2008

Contracting -- House OKs Three Accountability Bills: The House voice voted three bills yesterday requiring those seeking federal contracts to disclose information about their companies:

  • Close the Contractor Fraud Loophole Act (H.R. 5712) -- requiring prosective federal contractors disclose their involvement in administrative and legal proceedings initiated by the federal government
  • Contractors and Federal Spending Accountability Act (H.R. 3033) -- requiring their disclosure overpayments and violations of federal criminal law relating to the award or performance of federal contracts, especially overseas contracts, and maintenance of a database with such information
  • Government Contractor Accountability Act (H.R. 3928) -- requiring disclsoure of names and salaries of top executives and directors

Separately, the Contracting and Tax Accountability Act (H.R. 4881), which requires firms to submit, along with their contract bid proposal, a form certifying that they do not have any "seriously delinquent tax debt," passed the House on April 14. Story.

Budget -- Last-Ditch Effort at Budget Resolution Compromise: Budget resolution conferees have been at loggerheads for weeks about whether or not to pay for a one-year AMT patch, among other issues. A meeting today between House and Senate budget leaders with the House's Blue Dogs, a coalition of fiscal hawks, may be pivotal. Senate Budget Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) is said to have offered an AMT compromise; details yet undisclosed. Barring compromise, House leaders are giving thought to "deeming" the resolution, which would allow them to set an independent discretionary spending cap for FY09. Background.

Stimulus -- House Vote on Housing Tax Title in Early May: If you are confused by the number of bills currently under consideration by Congress being called "stimulus," here is some clarification. We had a $160 billion stimulus package consisting mostly of a $3-600 per person tax rebate. It omitted things like food stamp assistance and unemployment insurance -- items likely to be rolled into a "Stimulus 2.0" in coming weeks. Under discussion is a domestic spending add-on to the war supplemental; some call that a stimulus because the spending would go to aiding the economy. Then come the House and Senate housing/foreclosure bills' tax titles, also being referred to as stimulus packages. The latest is that Majority Leader Hoyer indicated yesterday that H.R. 5720, the housing bill's tax title in the House ($11 billion, offset) would reach the House floor the week of May 5. Commentary.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:51:25 AM



Wednesday, April 23, 2008

ADDENDUM: Gas Tax Cut Gets Bipartisan Rebuff
Following up on Fiscal Foolery:

  • Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Pete Domenici (R-NM) said today that a gas tax holiday this summer will do little to curb the soaring record prices at the pump. "You might not get the whole benefit of it because in a month or so the price might be up anyway, because the price of crude oil going up... I'm willing to listen but I don't believe it will solve the problem and I don't think it will do much for the American people."

  • Per House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman James L. Oberstar (D-MN) and Highways and Transit Subcommittee Chair Peter A. DeFazio (D-OR), the proposal will eliminate approximately 300,000 family-wage, highway construction-related jobs in a mere three months. For a state-by-state breakdown, click here.


Posted by Dana Chasin, 04:24:10 PM



Fiscal Fiction: Addressing Misconceptions, Pt. II
Memo to ABC's Gibson: Capital Gains Cuts Also Cut Revenues
... in each instance, when the [capital gains tax] rate dropped, revenues from the tax increased. The government took in more money. And in the 1980s, when the tax was increased to 28 percent, the revenues went down.... history shows that when you drop the capital-gains tax, the revenues go up.

Intuitively, Gibson's claim is far-fetched. True, if revenues increase following a capital gains tax rate cut, that's short-lived, and a function of investors delaying selling stock when they know a tax cut is imminent. After the cut takes effect, they then declare their gains and pay taxes at the lower rate. Empirically, as the Congressional Budget Office puts it in a revenue and tax policy brief:

[r]ising gains receipts in response to a rate cut are most likely to occur in the short run... The potentially large difference between the long- and short-term sensitivity of realizations to tax rates can mislead observers into assuming a greater permanent responsiveness than actually exists.

And from Gregory Mankiw, former chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers:

To what extent does a tax cut pay for itself? In almost all cases, tax cuts are partly self-financing. This is especially true for cuts in capital income taxes... For a cut in capital income taxes, the feedback is ... about 50 percent -- but still well under 100 percent and paybacks of 50 percent still mean a net revenue loss for the Treasury.

And finally, Will Rogers: "It's not the things he just don't know, it's the things he knows for sure that just ain't so."

Posted by Dana Chasin, 11:38:19 AM



Fiscal Foolery: Addressing Misconceptions, Pt. I
Suspending the 18.4 Cents/Gallon Tax This Summer

Sounds like a good idea, on the face of it. Cut the 18.4 cents-per-gallon Federal gas tax and customers will save roughly $2-3 each visit to the pump during the summer, right? What's not to like?

Well, don't ask whether it makes sense to encourage burning more fossil fuel or whether we should raid the highway trust fund when bridges are collapsing. Think about how to lower gas prices to boost the economy.

Here's the problem: Refineries run near capacity every summer as families rack up miles on their vacations. That's one reason why gas prices always jump in the summer. If [the] excise tax cut did translate into lower prices, we'd want to drive even more and burn more gasoline. Since the oil patch can't boost production much without building new refineries, the price has to go back up.

-- Commentary by Leonard E. Burman, Urban Institute, April 18, 2008

Another concern, raised by Dean Baker in the American Prospect:

We have a fixed amount of gas entering the market, the question is simply what price clears the market. In this context, if we reduce or eliminate the gas tax, the price doesn't change, the lower tax will simply allow Exxon and other oil companies to keep more profits (unless of course they were lying about running their refineries at capacity). Since most people do not have much familiarity with economics, the media should be informing the public about the impact of [this] proposal.


Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:34:20 AM



OMB Watch Statement on FY 2009 Budget

OMB Watch released a statement on April 22 on the FY 2009 budget resolution negotiations. The statement urges both House and Senate negotiators to uphold the fiscally responsible principles promised by Democrats when they took over the majority in 2006. A key aspect of the ongoing budget negotiations is whether to offset the $70 billion cost of a one-year fix to the creep of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The House version of the resolution offsets the costs while the Senate does not.

OMB Watch was intensely critical of the president and Congress, particularly the Senate, at the end of last year when they abandoned PAYGO and passed a fix to the AMT that added over $50 billion to the tab of future generations. Congress has the opportunity to reverse course on this issue this week and make the difficult, but correct, choice to pay for their priorities. Let's hope they are able to muster the courage to do the right thing.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 10:04:38 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 23, 2008

Supplemental -- Hoyer Expects Bill Late Next Week: Amid reports that congressional Democrats haven't settled on a strategy yet regarding the president's $108 billion war spending supplemental request, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told reporters yesterday that the House and Senate could take it up on the floor by the end of next week. "Democratic leaders have repeatedly said that, in the end, US troops in the field will be funded. But expectations are high that finally Congress will be able to extract a significant policy concession for that money." Story.

Contracts -- Reg. Change Short of Laggards Bill: A change to the Federal Acquisition Regulation falls short of the requirements of the Contracting and Tax Accountability Act, which passed the House on April 14. The change would require contractors to indicate whether they have been convicted over the past three years of violating any federal criminal tax law or failing to pay any tax. Contractors also would have to certify if they have been notified of an unresolved tax lien or any unsatisfied federal tax delinquency in excess of $3,000. See Federal Register change.

Economy -- Per Bush, It's a 'Slowdown', Not a Recession: "We're not in a recession, we're in a slowdown," Bush said at a news conference yesterday. Just a severe slowdown. For example, the National Association of Realtors released March home sales figures yesterday. The totals are down 20 percent from a year ago. See News Release. The president has a policy precription ready: "The key is for Congress not to raise taxes during this period of time and [to] send a signal that they're not going to raise taxes." Story.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:56:22 AM



Contractor Accountability Heats Up

Scott Amey over at the Project on Government Oversight reminded us on Monday that there has been a lot of long overdue action in Washington this month to hold federal contractors more accountable. Scott has a nice summary of some of the bills garnering attention in the House and a few other snipits from the past few weeks related to federal contracting. (Read Scott's summary). Two of the bills Scott mentions (H.R. 5712 and H.R. 3033 will be considered on the House floor this week. Another one, H.R. 3928 - which would require disclosure of the names and salaries of the most highly compensated officers of any contractor receiving more than 80 percent of their annual gross review from federal contracts, will also be considered on the floor this week.

In addition, House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) - who you can give a great deal of the credit for getting many of the current efforts off the ground - sent letters yesterday to KBR, Inc., and 14 other contractors who are working in Iraq and Afghanistan requesting information about the use of off-shore subsidiaries to reduce federal tax liability (KRB, Inc. letter, Sample of letter to other contractors).

This request is a follow-up to a briefing given to the House committee by employees of KBR, Inc. at the end of March after it was disclosed in the Boston Globe that KBR used offshore subsidiaries to avoid payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare. The House has already begun to correct this loophole with legislation (H.R. 5602) that would treat foreign subsidiaries performing services under contract with the government as American companies for the purposes of payroll taxes. But it is good Waxman is continuing to dig for more dirt on the tax evasion techniques of federal contractors and general waste and abuse of federal resources - something he has gotten used to doing during his career, according to this profile of Waxman in The Hill newspaper.

Update: Another upcoming item on contracting I neglected to mention is an oversight hearing being held by Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) in the Democratic Policy Committee on contract abuses in Iraq. Dorgan and the DPC will hear testimony on April 28 at 2:00 pm from three whistleblowers who were former employees with contractors working in Iraq. The hearing will be in room 406 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:00:18 AM



Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Times: Clouding the Housing Debate with "Facts"

For the second time in as many weeks, the New York Times tries to make sense of the nation's housing crisis and editorializes in favor of expanded bankruptcy protection and against "voluntary" efforts to forestall further foreclosures and foster re-financings, but it flies in the face of the facts:

Most important, Congress must not continue with efforts that have not worked to date, namely, appeals to the mortgage industry to act voluntarily to help distressed borrowers. Instead, lawmakers should allow bankrupt homeowners to have their mortgages modified under court protection.

This formulation does a disservice to readers and is likely to be ignored by policymakers seeking sensible solutions to the housing crisis for two reasons:

  • False Dichotomy: foreclosure prevention via re-financings does not preclude prevention via bankruptcy, or vice-versa. To suggest otherwise irrationally removes a vital policy tool from among the viable solutions available to policymakers.
  • Laissez-Faire vs. Incentivized 'Voluntary" Programs: President Bush's "HOPE" program is aptly named -- borrowers and lenders can only hope their counterparts are willing to re-negotiate; Barney Frank's plan rewards borrowers and lenders who voluntarily re-negotiate.

As we commented, last week's editorial put forth the very same false dichotomy, so the Times reader is now left to puzzle this out: why is the paper suggesting that without a bankruptcy provision, any housing bill is really a mortgage industry bailout? The merits aside, the legislative reality is that the bankruptcy provision faces long odds: it was defeated 36-58 by the Senate on April 3 -- 11 Democrats voting against. Bush has promised to veto the provision. Does the Times mean to suggest that there are no viable legislative solutions to the housing crisis?



Posted by Dana Chasin, 11:42:37 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 22, 2008

Earmarks -- Pelosi OKs DOJ Probe of Rep. Young Conduct: In a reverse case of separation of powers, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said yesterday that she concurs with last week's Senate vote referring the Rep. Don Young (R-AK) Coconut Grove improper earmark allegations to the Department of Justice. "The Speaker believes this a matter for the House ethics committee to look into, but she has no intention of standing in the way of the [Senate] bill as it moves forward to the president's desk," said Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami.

Taxes -- CBPP Clarifies Fiscal Impact of Cap Gains Cuts: "Cutting capital gains rates reduces revenues over the long run. That's the conclusion of the federal government's official revenue-estimating agencies, as well as outside experts and the Bush Administration's own Treasury Department." Following misinformation by ABCNews last week regarding the fiscal impact of capital gains rate cute, the Center on Budget released a short paper, Experts Agree That Capital Gains Tax Cuts Lose Revenue, that clears up some misconceptions. Paper.

Taxes -- Details of Senate AMT Patch/Extenders Package: A comprehensive description of the titles and elements in S. 2886, the Alternative Minimum Tax and Extenders Tax Relief Act of 2008, introduced last week by Senate Finance Committee Chair and ranking member Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Charles Grassley (R-IA), released by the Committee yesterday, is available here.

Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:03:49 AM



Monday, April 21, 2008

Supersized Supplemental Spending?

Saturday's New York Times reported on an emerging if-you-can't-beat-them-join-them strategy congressional Democrats are weighing as Congress takes up the Bush administration's request for a $108 billion supplemental war spending package for FY08:

Congressional Democrats have said that they will not simply grant Mr. Bush's request, but will once again seek to attach strings, including a requirement that Iraq pay a higher share of the costs. The Democrats also plan to add up to $30 billion in domestic spending that they say is needed to help the economy. Some Democrats are also trying to approve an additional $70 billion to sustain military operations through the end of Mr. Bush's term.

The theory: give President Bush so much more than than he has asked for that he won't look the legislative gift horse in the mouth and veto domestic stimulus add-ons, as he had threatened to do if such items were added to his original $108 billion request. And what a gift -- an extra $70 billion in war spending to be used "through the end of Mr. Bush's term" -- that is, in the three-plus months of FY09 before Bush leaves office on Jan. 20, 2009.

This would add up to a supersized $208 billion supplemental -- the largest in history, by far.

Image by Flickr user ERIK98122 used under a Creative Commons license.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 05:16:01 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 21, 2008

In Congress This Week -- Farm Bill, Contracting Reform:

  • Farm Bill -- Following a one-week extension of the farm bill signed at the end of last week, Senate and House conferees plan to resume negotiations Tuesday, April 22 to reach a compromise on the five-year package which would renew U.S. agricultural programs. The sticking point remains finding $10 billion in new revenues to offset new spending in the bill.
  • Contracting Reform: The House is likely to vote this week on H.R. 5712, a bill that would make it mandatory for U.S. contractors operating overseas to report fraud and abuse. The legislation also would require contractors to report any employee overpayments and criminal activity in regards to contracts over $5 million.

Budget Resolution -- Whether Congress can pass an FY09 budget resolution, or at least "deem" one, may be determined by week's end. The House and Senate are $3.5 billion apart on their respective budget resolutions' appropriations caps, just over one percent of their overall budgets. Here, the main sticking point is whether or not to offset a $70 billion, one-year AMT patch. The House, particularly the Blue Dogs, insist on offsets; in the Senate, the GOP and enough Democrats oppose offsetting the patch to stymie a compromise.

Stimulus 2.0 -- 30 House members Lobby Pelosi on Tax Provisions: Thirty House members, in an April 17 letter, called on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to include an extension of the R&D tax credit and the consumer tax credit for the purchase of advanced technology vehicles to encourage reductions in energy use. The stimulus bill (H.R. 5749) was approved by the House Ways and Means Committee April 16 with an extension of unemployment insurance benefits, but no other tax provisions. Letter ($).



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:47:05 AM



SCHIP Rules Imposed in 2007 Violated Law

The Government Accountability Office and the Congressional Research Service have concluded that rule changes imposed by the Bush administration on the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) in 2007 violated federal law: BNA reports:

In legal opinions released April 18, the Government Accountability Office and the Congressional Research Service said the SCHIP guidance is a rule for purposes of the Congressional Review Act (CRA) and so violates statutory requirements for congressional notice and review.

The Congressional Review Act was passed in 1996 and serves to keep Congress informed of rulemaking activities at federal agencies and makes sure those rules are submitted to Congress and the Comptroller General before they take effect. In this case, the SCHIP rules were published and used to deny a request by New York State to expand its SCHIP coverage to children from higher-income families (up to 250 percent of poverty, or $44,000 for a family of 3).

Unfortunately, $44,000 isn't a lot of money for a family of three in many parts of New York State, particularly NYC. Come to think of it, that isn't a lot of money for a family of three in many parts of the United States. Considering the prices of health care these days, restricting access to SCHIP for families in NY was an unfortunately decision from the Bush administration. This latest development gives some hope that it can be overturned.

Read the Opinions:
GAO Opinion
CRS Opinion

Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:37:46 AM



Friday, April 18, 2008

Earmarks for Me, But Not for Thee

Hurling invective at earmarks and deriding them all as wasteful "bridges to nowhere," is a popular theme these days. However, as Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has recently demonstrated, adopting a pox-on-all-earmarks position can quickly dissolve into a cafeteria-style earmark policy: "I like this earmark and this earmark, but not that one over there."

Yesterday, ThinkProgress noted that Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) plan to abolish earmarks from the federal budget would result in the elimination of U.S. funding assistance to Israel. McCain's presidential campaign responded to the finding by saying that, as president, McCain would "ensure America remains committed to the security of Israel, including maintaining America's assistance levels."

...

McCain has already made an exception for the $3 billion in foreign aid to Israel that is cited by the CRS. But he apparently is still willing to cut the rest of the earmarks in the CRS report. According to an analysis by Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Scott Lilly, that CRS report includes assistance to Egypt, Jordan, and Haiti as an earmark. Moreover, it includes funding for military family housing.

The fact is, there is nothing inherently nefarious about funding Congressperson-requested projects—some projects may be more useful, more appreciated, or otherwise "better" than others, but that a Congressperson has asked for it doesn't make it necessarily wasteful. And calling for an outright ban on earmarks will cut spending on programs that not everyone finds offensive - like the Iraq Study Group, for instance. This is not to say that the earmark process is not subject to abuses, however, but rather than prohibiting a particular spending mechanism, it makes more sense to bring the to the process a level scrutiny that will allow Congress and its constituents to debate the merits of these projects.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 05:31:19 PM



Pottery Barn Rule Non-Operational?

Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Evan Bayh (D-IN) are calling for war spending language that would shift some reconstruction costs to Iraqis. Their proposal would convert U.S. reconstruction funds from grants to loans. Citing Iraq's budget surplus and the U.S.'s deficit, Nelson said that Iraq must take fiscal responsibility for its reconstruction.

With Iraq's projected budget surplus estimated at $60 billion and the United States grappling with an ever-growing debt and spiraling deficits, we must look for solutions to end Iraq's cycle of dependence on American taxpayers. Iraq must take more responsibility for its own future by shouldering more of the costs for reconstruction and security. The era of the Administration's blank check policy for Iraq must come to an end.

This is departure from Secretary of State Colin Powell's dictum that the U.S.'s invasion of Iraq entails ownership of the outcome. It will be interesting to see if the Nelson-Collins approach creeps into other aspects of Iraq spending. Is it conceivable that the Pentagon could/would bill Iraq's established, but highly-factional government for the use of our military?

Image used under a Creative Commons license by Flickr user show and tell.


Posted by Craig Jennings, 02:53:45 PM



Farm Bill PAYGO Deal May Be at Hand

At 11:00 a.m. today, the Senate Finance Committee announced a new tax title to the farm bill, complete with offsets. The timing is propitious, because the one-month extension of the farm bill expires today. But agreement with the House is still unlikely to come today.

The tax expenditures in the new tax title, which come to a total of $2.406 billion, are as follows:

  • Ethanol Package $1.226 billion
  • Schedule F Loss Limitation $0.456 billion
  • Optional Self-Employment Tax $0.124 billion
  • Other Farm-Related Tax Reform $0.600 billion

And the offsets for $10 billion total spending in the bill are:

  • Stock Basis Reporting $6 billion
  • Customs User Fees $4 billion


Posted by Dana Chasin, 01:00:11 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 18, 2008

Economy -- 9 in 10 Americans Negative on Economy: A Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that nine in 10 Americans -- including a wide majority of Republicans -- now give the economy a negative rating, with a majority saying it is in "poor" shape, the most to say so in more than 15 years. Republicans are even sour about the efficacy of the stimulus tax rebate, with 68 percent saying it will fail to abate the slowdown, an increase of 21 points since February. Story.

Earmarks -- Senate Asks DOJ to Probe Don Young Earmark: Yesterday, the Senate voted 64-28 to call for a review by the Department of Justice of criminal allegations arising from the insertion of an earmark into the 2005 highway bill between final passage and President Bush's signature. The earmark here is a $10 million expenditure for a Florida highway interchange backed by Rep. Don Young (R-AK), former chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Story .

Taxes -- House Rejects Senate Farm Bill PAYGO Deal: House farm bill conferees rejected a Senate package of $2.5 billion in tax credits for land conservation and alternative energy to offset new spending in the bill. House negotiators said that that the tax credits would expire too soon to be PAYGO compliant. Overall, the Senate plan would add an extra $10 billion above the farm bill's $560 billion baseline. Farm Bill Wikipedia Entry.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:58:43 AM



Thursday, April 17, 2008

I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday
For a Tax Cut Today

Senate Finance Committee leaders Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Charles Grassley (R-IA) this afternoon proposed extending a raft of business tax breaks and providing a one-year AMT patch, but controversy is likely over the lack of offsets in the proposal. Story.

Rumors have circulated that Baucus and Grassley would not include PAYGO-compliant offsets in the legislation, but would rather offer a "letter of intent" to cover costs in the future -- an IOU to keep the package from adding to the debt. The proposal has not been scored, but could cost in the neighborhood of $100 billion.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 04:24:21 PM



Median Weekly Earnings Decline

In yesterday's Daily Fiscal Policy Report, we noted that real average weekly earnings in March were up compared to February, while they were down compared to March, 2007.

Today, the BLS released data on real median weekly earnings, which, like average weekly earnings, have declined since a year ago.

Median weekly earnings of the nation's 106.5 million full-time wage and salary workers were $719 in the first quarter of 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This was 3.8 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 4.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.


Posted by Craig Jennings, 03:03:08 PM



More Fallout From Federal Budget Cuts

The Washington Post reported this morning that U.S. nuclear weapons labs are losing staff and not undertaking necessary and valuable research because of budget cuts. From the Post article:

The directors of the nation's three national nuclear weapons laboratories say that budget cuts by Congress and the Bush administration have reduced their ability to carry out scientific research needed to ensure the reliability of the nation's nuclear arsenal in future years.

Another example of the impact of budget cuts and years of underfunding important priorities. There isn't much fallout at this point from the lack of resources, but I think this is one area in particular we do not want to wait to see what happens.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 11:09:11 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 17, 2008

Economy -- Housing Starts Lowest in 17 Years: Housing starts tumbled nearly 12 percent in March to their lowest level since March 1991, with big declines in all four national regions, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000, a decline of 11.9 percent from February, according to a joint Commerce and Housing and Urban Development report released yesterady. The year-on-year decline is 36.5 percent. Story.

War Spending -- FY 08-09 Combo in the Works: CQ is reporting that House Democratic Leadership is putting together a war supplemental package that would combine the remainder of the president's FY 2008 war supplemental request ($102B) with his FY 2009 request ($70B). The $170+B measure would likely be the last funding request by President Bush for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Earmarks -- Coconut Grove Earmark Vote Today: A Senate vote is expected today on an amendment by Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) to the "technical corrections" highway bill that would create an investigative committee to figure out $10 million for expanding I-75 near Fort Myers, Fla. got into the 2005 highway bill. A Florida developer with ties to the project had helped raise $40,000 for the re-election campaign of Rep. Don Young (R-AK), then the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Story.

Stimulus 2.0 -- UI Extension: By a 23-13 vote, a bill (HR 5749) that would extend unemployment benefits for 13 weeks (beyond the current limit of 26 weeks) was approved by the House Ways & Means Committee yesterday. The extension will likely be part of a broader measure designed to stimulate the economy and mitigate economic hardship.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:15:53 AM



Bill to Stop Medicaid Regs Moves Forward

A bill to delay seven regulations that would eliminate or severely cut Medicaid health care programs won unanimous approval yesterday in the House Energy and Commerce Committee by a vote of 46 - 0. The top Senate Republican on this topic - Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) - opposes the House bill despite overwhelming bipartisan support for it. Grassley prefers to amend the regulations rather than postpone for a year. House Energy and Commerce Ranking Member Joe Barton (R-TX) is confident the bill will pass both chambers and also that there is sufficient support to override a possible veto from the White House. Health and Human Services Secretary Leavitt has sent a letter to the House committee this past Tuesday saying he would recommend a veto (read the letter)

The proposed regulations would end up transferring up to $50 billion in costs for the Medicaid program to states. These regulations would have eliminated payments for Medicaid-related administrative activities at schools and specialized medical transportation services for children and hospital outpatient services. They would also have restricted rehabilitation payments and slashed states' ability to provide case management services for disabled beneficiaries.

Having a bill that opposes an administration initiative passed out of a House committee by a vote of 46 - 0 is a pretty strong start. At this point it looks like Barton, et al, are right - Grassley is swimming up stream on this one.



Posted by Adam Hughes, 09:09:04 AM



Wednesday, April 16, 2008

House Committee Approves Contractor Fraud Loophole Fix

By a voice vote, the the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee approved a bill (HR 5712) that would close a loophole in the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) that excuses federal contractors working overseas from reporting fraud. The loophole was inserted into the federal procurement rules and was published in November of last year as part of a contracting oversight measure. Called a "drafting error" by GSA chief acquisition officer David Drabkin, the loophole exempts companies performing federal contracts overseas from mandatory reporting of employee contract fraud.

For more background on (with hints of Administration shenanigans), see:

AP: Administration says contracting fraud loophole was mistake
Brattleboro Reformer: Official says fraud loophole was a mistake
GovExec: House committee approves bill to close contracting loophole
GovExec: Much-derided overseas contracting loophole to be closed


Posted by Craig Jennings, 06:07:41 PM



Re-Stimulus Redux

Act II, Scene I in the legislative drama of the stimulus played out this afternoon in the House Ways & Means Committee, as the panel considered a proposal to give residents of most states an additional 13 weeks of unemployment benefits, on top of the 26 weeks already authorized under law. Residents of states with unemployment rates at or above 6 percent (today, that means Alaska and Michigan) would get an additional 13 weeks.

But the final vehicle for this measure as well as for any other measures that might become part of a second srtimulus package is yet undetermined. Some have suggested attaching a Stimulus 2.0 package to a war spending supplemental bill expected to be taken up in the coming weeks.

In Act I, the audience will recall, unemployment extension was shown an early exit, stage right, as Republicans killed cloture in a 58-41 vote-and-dagger perfectly party-line procedural play on Feb. 6.

Watch this space for further developments as the drama unfolds.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 04:59:18 PM



Hedge Fund Giants Earned Enough to Pay Fair Share
"Pick on Someone Your Own Size!"

The New York Times business section story today, Wall Street Winners Get Billion-Dollar Paydays, addresses the fortunes of "[h]edge fund managers, those masters of a secretive, sometimes volatile financial universe, [who] are making money on a scale that once seemed unimaginable, even in Wall Street's rarefied realms," mentions that the top 50 hedge fund managers last year earned a combined $29 billion, and goes on to quote William H. Gross, the chief investment officer of the bond fund Pimco:

There is nothing wrong with it — it's not illegal... But it's ugly.

Look, no one wants to make legitmate financial success illegal. But how galling would taxpayers find it to learn that these hedge fund managers paid a tax rate lower than or equal to all but the most destitute Americans?

Well, it's true, thanks to the carried interest loophole allowing fund managers to claim their salary from commissions as capital gains (taxed at 15 percent), rather than ordinary income (taxed at up to 35 percent). The loophole means top fund managers get tax breaks of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Last year, the hedge fund managers' lobbyists blocked a bill in the Senate (it had passed in the House) to end this loophole, arguing that the bill unfairly singled out fund managers. Singled out? Perhaps. Unfairly? Perhaps. This is like Mike Tyson crying to Nancy Kerrigan, "Pick on Someone Your Own Size!"



Posted by Dana Chasin, 12:31:11 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 16, 2008

Economy -- Latest Data: Inflation Up, Earnings Down

  • Inflation Up in March: BLS data show consumer prices advanced 0.3 percent in March; energy was up 1.9 percent while food ticked up 0.2 percent. Over the past 12 months, inflation is up 4.0 percent (less food and energy, 2.4 percent)

  • Average Weekly Earnings: The BLS is also indicating that real (inflation adjusted) average weekly earnings were up 0.2 percent Feb. to March. Year-over-year, real average weekly earnings are down 1.0 percent, continuing their downward trend.

Taxes -- House Votes an End to Private IRS Dunning Scheme: By a vote of 238-179, the House yesterday approved the Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 2008 (H.R. 5719), which would end the controversial private debt collection program at a cost of $578 million over 10 years. The bill is fully offset; one such measure would prevent certain federal contractors from avoiding paying FICA taxes. Fortunes of the bill in the Senate are uncertain -- Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) is a staunch supporter of the IRS scheme. OMBW blog.

Farm Bill -- Accord Close, but Offset Agreement Elusive: Despite rapid progress on the bill's spending provisions regarding agriculture research, international food aid, and support for beginning farmers, conferees still seek offsets for the $10 billion spending above the bill's $290 billion baseline. "We're not even close," House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-NY) said about negotiations with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT).



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:05:16 AM



House Passes HR 5719
Tax Act Would End IRS's Private Debt Collection Program

After fending off an effort to attach an immigration provision, the House passed HR 5719 by a vote of 238-179.

The bill would end the IRS's private debt collection (PDC) program if signed into law. It was this provision and a proposed change to the rules of health savings accounts (HSAs) that drew vocal opposition from Republicans.

While the fortunes of the bill in the Senate are uncertain -- Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) is a staunch supporter of the PDC initiative -- The House vote indicates an override of a veto is unlikely.

For more details about bill, read this Watcher article.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 09:29:49 AM



Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Tax Day 2008 Reflections: Existential Taxation

We all know we labor one third of our lives. Do we reflect on the fact that roughly one fifth of all our productive and economic lives involves taxation?

Do we appreciate that the tax code is our industrial policy (shaped by corporate tax incentives)? That the code is also a moral code (the marriage penalty)? That it expresses our values and governs much of our social and spiritual lives (the charitable deduction)? That it orders and re-orders our society (the mortgage interest deduction and the trillions more in spending that it enables)?

These and other themes are addressed in a statement offered today by Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus (D-MT), "Regarding Fundamentals in Advance of Tax Reform", a tax day rumination that brings home the many ways that taxation has a direct bearing on our lives and society.

A choice quotation:

"A tax can be a means for raising revenue, or a device for regulating conduct, or both."

-- Justice Felix Frankfurter

... or both?



Posted by Dana Chasin, 07:59:21 PM



President Threatens to Veto HR 5719, the Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 2008

President Bush has threatened to veto HR 5719, the bill recently approved by the House Ways & Means Committee and expected to see House floor action today. The bill would end the IRS's private debt collection (PDC) program, require that disbursements from health savings accounts (HSAs) be substantiated (i.e. require submission of receipts), and implement a bevy of other tax policies.

The president feels that the federal government should continue to waste money on the PDC initiative, because he would rather put taxpayer data at risk and open citizens to abusive debt collection practices than divert federal funds to more efficient and transparent tax collection methods.

Bush also objects to the changes to the HSA code, because requiring HSA account holders to prove that withdrawals from their accounts are, in fact, for approved purposes, would result in a lower usage rate of such accounts.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 01:16:06 PM



The Other April 15
Difficult? Try Downright Ugly

The law provides two major deadlines on April 15. One law applies to every citizen of the United States, requires payments of substantial amounts of income following arduous calculation, is complied with by over 100 million Americans, and is punishable by fines and jail time. The other applies to 535 citizens, involves a drawing up a non-binding blueprint outlining in general terms how to spend trillions of dollars on various things including items designed to help these 535 citizens, the members of Congress, get re-elected, is rarely complied with, and is ignored with complete impunity.

You think your April 15 is rough?

Think again. How would you like to be in the position of these 535 individuals, who once again today have blown the statutory April 15 deadline for completion of work on the budget resolution? For a consideration of the special challenges facing these 535 people today, every day, this year, and next year (and for lord knows how long), I commend for your edification and depression: Fiscal 2010 Budget Fight.

The bottom line: "That's why it's generous to refer to next year's budget debate as "difficult." A more accurate description would be "downright ugly."



Posted by Dana Chasin, 01:03:02 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- Tax Day 2008

Taxes -- IRS Tax Collection Program A $$-Loser: A front-page story in today's Washington Post reports that Collectors Cost IRS More Than They Raise. The IRS' program using private tax collectors has brought in about half of what it has cost the IRS to implement the program. Debt collectors have pocketed commissions of up to 24 percent. "This program is the hood ornament for incompetence" said Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND). Expected losses: $37 million. Story.

Taxes -- House Vote Today on Simplification Act: The House is expected to vote today on the Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 2008, which cleared Ways & Means last week. The bill aims to streamline the income tax filing process and improve services for elderly, disabled and low-income taxpayers. Bill Summary. It would would increase revenues by $41 million and reduce direct spending by $247 million over the 2008-2018 period. CBO Score.

And More Taxes -- House Limits Contracts for Tax Laggards: By a voice vote yesterday, the House passed Contracting and Tax Accountability Act, a bill to prohibit companies with seriously delinquent federal tax debts from receiving new contracts and grants. S. 2519, the Senate companion bill by the same name, sponsiored by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has been referred to but has not been acted upon by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. OMBW Blog.

And... Ten Tips for Tax Day: The deadline for filing state and federal taxes is midnight tonight. If you're still reading this, you probably need all the help you can get. Here are some suggestions and tips, offered by the Boston Globe. Tip #1 1: Don't stress -- go to Tip #10 first. 10 Tax Tips.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:38:31 AM



Monday, April 14, 2008

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish on Foreclosure Politics?

The New York Times' lead editorial today, "Foreclosure Politics," opens with some important points about the expensive, irrelevant, and counterproductive tax breaks riddling the Senate's inaptly named "Foreclosure Prevention Act." But from there, the editorial swerves off course and confuses readers about the House bill aimed at preventing foreclosures and minimizing economic pain.

The editorial says that, under the plan by House Financial Services chair Barney Frank (D-MA) to provide $300 billion in refinanced mortgage guarantees,

loans could be modified en masse. But the plan also has flaws. One is political: taxpayers could be on the hook if F.H.A. borrowers defaulted. Congress cannot ask taxpayers to step up without doing all it can to solve the problem without shifting the risk to taxpayers. The way to do that is to allow bankruptcy courts to modify mortgages for troubled homeowners.

Taxpayers could be on the hook if the House adopts a plan that the House leadership, the administration, a broad range of regulators and policymakers, and all three presidential candidates have indicated that their support in principle. But taxpayers also might not be on the hook for a penny -- and, in fact, the federal government might ultimately make a pretty penny in the process under the plan.

This is not to say that bankruptcy reform doesn't have a role in making the Frank plan more effective. But talk about political difficulty! The ink is still not dry on the last major bankruptcy reform, which passed in Congress overwhelmingly in 2005. Members' votes on the bankruptcy issue are not likely to change so soon, certainly not enough to allow an override of a certain Bush veto.

Speculations about whether taxpayers would be on the "hook" under the Frank plan are just that until CBO scores the plan. Better to heed the initial indications CBO itself offered last Friday in a paper bound to be influential on the outcome of the debate, "Policy Options for the Housing and Financial Markets":

Direct federal provision or guaranteeing of credit to mortgage markets could help avoid foreclosures and ease the downward pressure on house prices, helping the market to adjust in an orderly manner, [would] involve modest federal subsidies and would probably affect several hundred thousand homeowners.

The Times editorial itself notes that "with foreclosures running at about 20,000 per week, at least 100,000 more families are likely to lose their homes before Congress passes a relief bill." If we count pennies and wait until we have a president who will sign bankruptcy reform, that number could easily exceed a million.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 06:20:34 PM



House Passes HR 4881 - Contracting and Tax Accountability Act of 2007

By a voice vote, the House approved HR 4881. The bill, the Contracting and Tax Accountability Act of 2007, if signed into law, would bar firms that are delinquent in paying their federal income taxes from obtaining federal contracts.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 04:58:10 PM



Private Tax Collection Sign On Letter

OMB Watch has signed on to a National Treasury Employees Union letter that calls on Representatives to support H.R. 5719, the "Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 20080." The bill would, among other things, end the private debt collection program, which is not only fiscally irresponsible, but puts sensitive taxpayer data at risk and opens citizens to abusive collection practices.

If you would like to sign on to the letter, email Matt Socknat at NTEU -
(email address appears as an image and is un-clickable to prevent spam)

Update: The letter sign-on deadline has passed. You can read the letter here.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 04:12:46 PM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 14, 2008

Economy -- March Spending Figures Wane: Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is waning as consumers pay well over $3 a gallon for gasoline just as their jobs are in jeopardy and their homes lose value. Spending thus far in the first half of 2008 is at the lowest half-year rate since purchases dropped in the six months that ended March 1991. Story.

Taxes -- Extenders Package Out This Week?: As early as this week, Senate Finance Chair Max Baucus might unveil a $50 billion package of popular tax-cut extensions, including the R&D credit, but the mix of breaks and offsets required under PAYGO are still in flux. Leaders had to abandon a similar package last year because the parties could not agree on offsets.

Tax Day-Eve -- Last Tax Day of the Bush Era: Did Americans think in 2000 that tomorrow would be different for them after eight years of President Bush? "April 15 will mark the eighth 'tax day' during the administration of President George W. Bush. How has tax day changed? The answer for most Americans is: very little." An Appreciation.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:28:15 AM



Friday, April 11, 2008

Boehner: Preschool Education, Food Stamps "Wasteful Pork-barrel Spending"

Referring to speculation that Democrats would add domestic spending provisions to a $108 billion war supplemental bill, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) said, "We will fight against any cynical attempts to...pile billions more in unrelated and wasteful pork-barrel spending onto the backs of our men and women in uniform serving so bravely."

Here's a list of programs (CQ, $) for which a few Democrats would like to see funding in the war spending bill:

  • Food Stamps
  • Levee repairs for the Gulf Coast
  • Head Start
  • Nutrition for low-income pregnant women and children
  • Low-income energy assistance
  • Wildfire fighting

Arguing the merits of funding these priorities - including the war itself - in a supplemental spending bill may well be called for, but calling Food Stamps, levee repair, etc. "wasteful pork-barrel spending" piled on "the backs of our men and women in uniform?" That's cynical.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 11:33:25 AM



Economic Indicators Archive

In case you didn't know (as I didn't 'til I stumbled on it), the Wall Street Journal maintains a number of statistical reports that economists use to gauge and forecast business conditions. These reports, issued by government agencies and business research groups, generally are accessible there for one month. Their Economic Indicators Archive is accessible here.

Among the reports:

Good for what ails us.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 10:11:10 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT --April 11, 2008

Housing Crisis -- Senate Passes Package: A bill to provide $13 billion in tax breaks for businesses and homebuyers, $6 billion in renewable energy tax credits, $4 billion for cities to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed properties, $150 million for mortgage counselling, and $30 million for legal assistance for homebuyers passed the Senate 84-12 yesterday. Only the last two of these provisions was offset. There is no companion piece in the House and the president said he opposes it.

Budget -- Agencies Will Delay FY 2010 Requests: OMB Director Jim Nussle has instructed ($) federal agencies to not submit FY 2010 budget requests. The instructions, however, are not unprecedented, as president Clinton's OMB Director Jack Lew made a similar move in 2000. But, "it might create a kind of crisis environment in 2009, because they won't have done the planning that is needed," according to former assistant director of CBO Cindy Williams.

IRS -- Agency to Combat Identity Theft: Who knew, but fully one quarter of all identity thefts are related to frauldulent tax returns. Such returns have increased 500 percent since 2002, new IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman and National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson told the Senate Finance Committee yesterday. Committee Chair Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) ordered the agency to report back in 90 days on its progress in developing a "comprehensive identity-theft strategy." Story.

Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:52:14 AM



Thursday, April 10, 2008

Health Care Spending - It's Not the Aging of the Population

If policy makers are truly interested in fixing the Entitlement Crisis™, they need to look at the factors that are pushing the federal budget along an unsustainable path. As we've noted before, Social Security has minor financing issues, but its full-benefit operation does not pose a threat to long-term fiscal fitness. Medicare, however, does. And while it is tempting to indict the aging of the Baby Boom generation for fueling rapid increases in health care costs, policy makers would be wrong to set out to simply reduce benefits and/or increase Medicare premiums as a fix. Instead, they should focus their efforts on the supply side of health care, rather than increased demand resulting from the aging of the population.



Continue reading...

Posted by Craig Jennings, 03:45:40 PM



"Foreclosure Prevention" Vote: Baucus & Grassley Win
Emph. Added

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-IA) won passage of important tax relief measures for homeowners, homebuyers, and homebuilders as part of the housing bill approved 84-12 by the Senate today. The Baucus-Grassley tax provisions, which total $10.9 billion over 10 years, aren't paid for, but it's so worth it. The bill allows companies, mostly those unrelated to the housing sector losing money — and facing employee layoffs — to write off current losses and bolster struggling operations.

Baucus: "There is no magic solution to this housing crisis. This is just plain responsible policy to deal with a lot of irresponsible actions that led to serious trouble for so many Americans and for our economy. To respond to this crisis, Senator Grassley and I crafted provisions that support American families and American workers who deserve to keep their homes and their jobs. This bill amounts to real money for American families through tax relief or continued paychecks from companies that use this tax relief to survive.

Grassley: "Tax relief helps encourage home ownership, and addressing the housing problem can help the economy overall. It's appropriate to use the tax code to help people buy homes and to help the many businesses that are tied to the housing industry recover from losses. Those businesses create jobs. The economy should benefit from this shot in the arm."

Proud parents Baucus and Grassley forgot to mention that more corporate tax breaks means more jobs, which means more money for mortgages payments... thereby preventing foreclosures!

President Bush yesterday threatened to veto this bill and the House might just ignore it entirely.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 02:19:38 PM



W&M Twofer: Contractor Provision Passed with Tax Bill

The Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act (H.R. 5719) approved by the House Ways & Means Committee yesterday contains a measure that would force U.S. firms employing workers through foreign shell companies to pay Social Security and Medicare taxes if the work is performed under a contract with the federal government.

The provision's language is lifted from the Fair Share Act of 2008 (H.R. 5602), which was introduced in the Senate and House on March 13. The measure would bring in, over ten years, $846 million in new revenue.

See this Watcher piece for more details on the Fair Share Act of 2008.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 10:28:27 AM



DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- April 10, 2008

Housing -- White House Endorses Frank-Style Plan: In a case of strange bedfellows, the administration now supports the plan supported by Democrats to stabilize the battered housing market by allowing a homeowner, who may now owe more than his home is worth, to get out of an expensive adjustable-rate mortgage and refinance into a more stable and affordable 30-year loan backed by the federal government. Story.

Taxes -- House Panel OKs Bill to End IRS Private Collection: Yesterday, the House Ways and Means Committee April 9 passed H.R. 5719, the Taxpayer Assistance and Simplification Act of 2008, 23-17, to remove the Internal Revenue Service's authority to conduct its private debt collection program. The bill's fate in the Senate is uncertain. CPA endorsement.

Economy -- Small Respite in Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims dropped by 53,000, more than double the decline economists had forecast, to 357,000 in the week ended April 5, the Labor Department said yesterday. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, increased to 378,250, reaching the highest level since October 2005. Bloomberg.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 09:35:28 AM



Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Housing Assistance Tax Clears Ways & Means

This afternoon, the House Ways & Means Committee adopted H.R. 5720, the Housing Assistance Tax Act of 2008, by a vote of 35-5. The bill, effectively the tax title of House Financial Service Committee Chair Barney Frank's FHA Housing Stabilization and Homeownership Retention Act, costs $11 billion over the next five and ten years, all but fully offset.

What it provides/How much it costs:

  • First-time home buyer credit/$3.78 billion over 10 years
  • Hike in mortgage revenue bonds/$1.37 billion
  • New standard deduction for property tax/$1.117 billion
  • Hike in the low-income housing tax credit/$1.05 billion
  • Tax-exempt housing bond simplification/$519 million

Revenue provisions (offsets)/how much each one raises:

  • Basis reporting by brokers on sales of stock/$8.05 billion
  • Delaying implementation of worldwide allocation of interest/$2.93 billion

While some of the tax breaks in H.R. 5720 are not targeted to homeowners at risk or victims of foreclosure (e.g. the first-time buyer credit), this is a vast improvement over the Senate tax title for avoiding big, indiscriminate breaks for businesses across the board; for including many items that have already passed the House, making it politically viable; and for complying with PAYGO. Final JCT Score. Bill Description.



Posted by Dana Chasin, 05:12:46 PM



Ways & Means Looks to End Private Tax Collectio