The Department of Labor released its weekly unemployment insurance claims data this morning. Initial and continuing claims moved slightly downward, from 445,000 to 432,000 and from 3,379,000 to 3,362,000, respectively. The four-week moving average of initial claims, however, ticked up from 438,500 to 445,750.

Over on Capital Gains and Games (a favorite blog of the Budget Brigade), budget guru Stan Collender and Pete Davis muse, in a couple of posts, on the presidential candidates' budget plans. They emphasize the point that, as much as they may want to implement deficit-increasing tax and/or expenditure plans, the market may have other plans.

First, Collender reminds us that in the post-Reagan world, economic policy options were limited.

The bond market "vigilantes" -- the same people who forced the Clinton administration to propose and push for deficit reduction -- are starting to say that the moon, stars, and planets may line up again in 2009 to force the next president to do the same thing.

In a follow-up post, Davis explains how large, persistent deficits impact the economy. This may give the next president pause (Davis hopes) and put the kibosh on his plans.

High real interest rates choked off recovery from the 1980 recession until early 1983, and real growth turned down again in 1986, but stopped short of a recession. The first chart [shown] also shows the "neutral real rate" required to keep the economy at full production. With the credit crisis, it has moved negative, where it remains today. It will take us at least another year or two to come out of our economic "slowdown," and rising interest rates could easily choke that recovery off.

Taxpayer for Common Sense, the scrappy nonprofit that is fast becoming the go-to resource for all things earmarks, released a new analysis earlier this week showing that earmark levels have dropped slightly in the FY 2009 appropriations bills compared to last year. From the TCS report:

During this election year, lawmakers are showing slight restraint in writing the earmarks in the FY 2009 spending bills, according to an analysis by Taxpayers for Common Sense (TCS) (click here for the new database). The House has increased the number and value of earmarks at about the same rate. The Senate has cut earmarks by 16% in the spending bills in terms of total dollars. The analysis is based on all the bills that have passed full committee and are awaiting action in both chambers.

The appropriations bills are not complete yet (far from it) and TCS warns that lots could change. In fact, they state the FY 2009 spending bills may end up with more earmarks because of how the bills are likely to be enacted:

The slight progress made on reducing the total costs of earmarks will be eliminated the longer we wait to pass the 2009 spending bills. The most likely scenario is a major omnibus spending bill during the first days of the 111th Congress. So any earmark reductions we are seeing in August are likely to be negated by an avalanche of earmarks that always accompanies major omnibus spending bills.

At least legislators running for re-election can say with a straight face they are trying to reduce earmarks. I suppose that's better than them claiming that cutting earmarks saves any money. It doesn't

On Tuesday, August 19, the Coalition on Human Needs is once again hosting a webinar to help advocates and analysts prepare for the release of annual data from the Census Bureau about poverty, income, and health insurance in the U.S. The webinar will take place from 2:00 - 3:30 (EST) on the web, and feature Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Insitute, Douglas Hall, Acting Managing Director of Connecticut Voices for Children, Deborah Weinstein, Executive Director of the Coalition on Human Needs, and will be moderated by Ellen Teller, Director of Government Affairs, Food Research and Action Center.

If you are not familiar with CHN's webinar or the annual data release of poverty information from Census, here's a bit of information about what you can expect if you sign up and participate. The webinar will help you:

* to find and understand national numbers and the findings for your state when they're released on August 26
* to see accurate trends over time; whether your state fares better or worse than the national average
* to compare the new data (from 2007) with what we know about the economic woes of 2008, and
* how to talk about the new findings to help build the growing movement for a national commitment to dramatically reduce U.S. poverty.

To sign up to participate and for more information, see CHN's webinar webpage.

The Bush administration announced yesterday that it will not enforce new requirements that would have made it more difficult for states to enroll children in the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). USA Today reports that the administration will not be taking "compliance action" at this time on regulations that would have forced states to wait until children are uninsured for one year before being covered by SCHIP and also require states to enroll 95 percent of extremely low-income children in the state before expanding health care coverage to only somewhat low-income families:

The directive was aimed at 15 states that extended health insurance to children in families with incomes above 250% of the federal poverty level — $44,000 for a family of three.

Many governors and Democratic lawmakers criticized the administration's new guidelines as impossible to meet. They said the final result would be that more children would go without health coverage as states rein in their programs.

With the deadline fast approaching, the administration made clear that states were under no immediate threat of losing federal funding.

We commented at the end of July about how Democrats in Congress really dropped the ball in using the Congressional Review Act to impede the Bush administration's efforts to keep kids from having health care. Fortunately, at least for the time being, it looks like they are off the hook.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data for inflation and real earnings this morning, while the Labor Department reported on unemployment insurance claims for the past week.

Inflation: Consumer prices continue their steep advance as prices jumped 0.8 percent in July, pushing the annualized rate to 10.6 percent (yikes!). The jump in consumer prices was largely driven by food and energy, and when those items are subtracted inflation clocks in a high, but not scary, 3.5 percent. BLS Release: Consumer Price Index: July 2008 Commentary: Dean Baker at CEPR
Real Earnings: Workers' pay took a hit in July as real average weekly earnings fell by 0.8 percent. The 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings couldn't keep up with the 0.3 decrease in aerage weekly hours and the 0.9 percent in prices. BLS Release: Real Earnings in July 2008
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Last week, 450,000 workers claimed unemployment insurance for the first time -- 10,000 fewer than the previous week. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 440,500, an increase of 19,500 from the previous week's revised average of 421,000. Workers who continue to collect unemployment insurance advanced to 3,417,000, an increase of 114,000 from the previous week. Department of Labor Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Commentary: Andrew Samwick at Capital Gains and Games

The OMB Watch Fiscal Policy Program is looking for an intern for the fall of 2008. Yup, that's right. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor at one of the most dynamic nonprofit watchdog groups in Washington, DC. We're looking for energetic undergraduate or graduate students who have excellent writing, critical thinking, and communications skills, and who are dedicated to public policy and government accountability (see current intern Josh at right for example).

The internship is unpaid, but you'll have the chance to gain first hand experiences and take on significant responsibilities related to a number of different aspects of policy analysis in DC. Plus, you'll get a chance to write for the BudgetBlog - what could be better?

Interested? Learn more about the position and how to apply.

In response a requrest from the Senate Budget Committee, CBO has a issued a report on contractors working in Iraq. From 2003 to 2007, the federal government awarded over $85 billion in contracts, and with a burn rate of $17-21 billion per year, it's likely that $100 has been doled out to private contractors since the start of the war.

The report is thorough analysis of on what and by whom that money is being spent. CBO sliced the data by:

• Which federal agency is awarding contracts (The DoD has awarded $76 billion in contracts with the Army obligating 75 percent of that amount)
• Location of where contract was performed ($63 billion in Iraq, $14 billion in Kuwait, and $8 billion in other countries in the Iraq theater*)
• The types of products and services provided by contractors (about $25 for Professional, Administrative, and Management Support, $20 billion for Uncategorized or Miscellaneous, with the rest falling in some 97 other categories)

CBO's report also quantifies the extent to which contractor personnel are in theater. CBO estimates that there are some 190,000 people working for contractors in the Iraq theater, of which about 20 percent are U.S. citizens. In fact, the ratio of contract personnel to military is 1 to 1 -- a level some 3.9 times higher than the historical average.

Upon the release of the report Senate Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) issued a press release summarizing the potential pitfalls of outsourcing on such a massive scale:

There are billions of taxpayer dollars being funneled to both American and foreign companies, often through no-bid contracts. Ongoing Pentagon audits have revealed that vast sums of this money have been misspent or improperly recorded. The American people deserve a better accounting from this Administration of who these contractors are, why they are being used instead of U.S. troops, how they are being monitored, and whether they represent a cost-effective use of American resources.

*A region in the Middle East including Iraq, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates

It's been a slow day here at the Budget Brigade, so I thought I'd bring your attention to the lastest round of quarterly "scores" agencies receive on the President's Management Agenda (PMA) scorecard. These scores measure the implementation of the PMA, or how well the major agencies are "executing the five government-wide management initiatives." Robert Brodsky from Government Executive Magazine has a rundown of the latest scores, which are not too good:

Many federal agencies have taken a step backward on the Bush administration's five major management initiatives, according to quarterly grades released on Thursday by the Office of Management and Budget.

There were 14 downgrades on the status section of OMB's management score card for the third quarter of 2008, which ended June 30. And there were only six instances in which grades improved.

The problems were limited to two areas of the President's Management Agenda: human capital and electronic government.

Clay Johnson, OMB's Deputy Director for Management, cautioned that the "scores" shouldn't be seen as "scores," but as opportunities for improvement.

"The score cards aren't about compliance or getting to a score -- it's about results that agencies are producing," Johnson said. "So, a dip in a score shouldn't always be viewed in the negative, but as a way to [make] progress and improve effectiveness."

Hmmmm...

P.S. For all you home-gamers out there, the administration's "competitive sourcing" initiative has been renamed to the new and improved Commercial Services Management initiative. Same waste of money, great new name.