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Home :  Federal Budget & Tax : 
Federal Budget & Tax:      News     Blog     Background    



Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!

While we here in the Budget Brigade are thankful that our respective alma mates are poised to clinch BCS bowl berths (hook 'em, Horns!), we are even more thankful that President Elect Obama has serious concerns about the current BCS system. That's change we can believe in!

The Budget Brigade will return to the BudgetBlog on Monday.

Have a great Thanksgiving and enjoy the day.

Image by Flickr user Jennifer13 used under a Creative Commons license.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 03:32:11 PM



Tuesday, November 25, 2008

A Few Trillion More Than 700 Billion

Updated: See below.

The number most commonly-associated with the federal government's role in bailing out the nation's banks (and various other institutions that move money around the economy) is $700 billion -- the amount authorized by Congress for the Treasury Department to spend on...well, that keeps changing...banks generally. But, according to a tally by Bloomberg News, to date, the federal government has put $7.76 trillion of taxpayer funds on the line to shore up the nation's financial network.

The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.

When Congress approved the TARP on Oct. 3, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the need for transparency and oversight. Now, as regulators commit far more money while refusing to disclose loan recipients or reveal the collateral they are taking in return, some Congress members are calling for the Fed to be reined in.

...

Bloomberg News tabulated data from the Fed, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and interviewed regulatory officials, economists and academic researchers to gauge the full extent of the government's rescue effort.

The bailout includes a Fed program to buy as much as $2.4 trillion in short-term notes, called commercial paper, that companies use to pay bills, begun Oct. 27, and $1.4 trillion from the FDIC to guarantee bank-to-bank loans, started Oct. 14.

And if you thought the lack of transparency around Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program was disconcerting, this quote from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke will have you reaching for your favorite antacid:

"Some have asked us to reveal the names of the banks that are borrowing, how much they are borrowing, what collateral they are posting," Bernanke said Nov. 18 to the House Financial Services Committee. "We think that's counterproductive."

Update: Spoke too soon! Make that $8.56 trillion:

The United States government unveiled $800 billion worth of new loans and debt purchases on Tuesday [Nov. 25], hoping another massive infusion of cash would smooth troubled credit markets and make borrowing easier for homebuyers, small businesses and students.

The Federal Reserve said it would buy up to $600 billion in mortgage-backed assets from government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It would buy up to $100 billion in debt directly from the companies and up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

...

Separately, the Fed and Treasury Department announced a $200 billion program to ease commercial lending on debt like student loans, car loans or business loans. The Fed would lend up to $200 billion to holders of asset-backed securities supported by car loans, credit card loans, student loans, and business loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.

Image by Flickr user jurek d. used under a Creative Commons license.



Posted by Craig Jennings, 11:00:01 AM



Monday, November 24, 2008

Competitive Sourcing Continues to Fail

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a new report on Friday on the Bush administration's competitive sourcing initiative, which allows the federal government to hold public-private competitions for the right to deliver commercial services for the government (things like janitorial services or food preparation or maintenance). If a private sector bid can show savings of $10 million or more or 10 percent of the cost of providing those services in-house, they win the competition. /p>

The Bush administration has repeatedly claimed fairly significant savings as a result of the competitive sourcing program - just see about any report on this OMB webpage (btw, the program was recently renamed by the Bush administration to the "Commercial Services Management Initiative"). Unfortunately, there continues to be evidence that these claims of savings are either intentionally overstated, or flat out made up.

The latest GAO report echoes past criticisms of the competitive sourcing initiative - this time after studying its implementation at the Department of Labor (DOL). From the report's summary:

  • DOL lacks a departmentwide process for tracking and addressing deficiencies and recommendations for improvements that are identified in postcompetition accountability reviews.
  • Though consistent with OMB guidance, DOL excluded a number of substantial costs in its reports to Congress—such as the costs for precompetition planning, certain transition costs and staff time, and postcompetition review activities—thereby understating the full costs of this contracting approach.
  • DOL's savings reports are not reliable: a sample of three reports contained inaccuracies, and others used projections when actual numbers were available, which sometimes resulted in overstated savings.


  • Because of these and other weaknesses, DOL is hindered in its ability to determine if services are being provided more efficiently as a result of competitive sourcing.

    In addition, the GAO report found that federal employees who participated in the competitions felt demoralized by the process and felt it wasn't implemented well - a fact that has not escaped the notice of Rep. David Obey (D-WI) and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) - the two legislators who requested the GAO to study this program at DOL. GAO also points out on page 6 that these finds are similar to other studies they have conducted of the competitive sourcing initiative at the Departments of Defense and Agriculture.



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 01:40:01 PM



    Friday, November 21, 2008

    Friendly Advice

    When going to Washington to ask Congress for $25 billion to help you out of jam because your company is going bankrupt, it's probably best to leave the private jet at home.

    ...the chief executives of the Big Three automakers opted to fly their company jets to the capital for their hearings this week before the Senate and House -- an ill-timed display of corporate excess for a trio of executives begging for an additional $25 billion from the public trough this week.

    "There's a delicious irony in seeing private luxury jets flying into Washington, D.C., and people coming off of them with tin cups in their hands," Rep. Gary L. Ackerman (D-N.Y.) advised the pampered executives at a hearing yesterday. "It's almost like seeing a guy show up at the soup kitchen in high-hat and tuxedo. . . . I mean, couldn't you all have downgraded to first class or jet-pooled or something to get here?"

    The Big Three said nothing, which prompted Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) to rub it in. "I'm going to ask the three executives here to raise their hand if they flew here commercial," he said. All still at the witness table. "Second," he continued, "I'm going ask you to raise your hand if you're planning to sell your jet . . . and fly back commercial." More stillness. "Let the record show no hands went up," Sherman grandstanded.

    Image by Flickr user kilobar used under a Creative Commons license.



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 01:21:07 PM



    Thursday, November 20, 2008

    Better News for Workers

    Today the Senate approved, by a voice vote, a 7-week extension for unemployment insurance and six more on top of that in states where unemployment is higher than 6 percent. The bill, HR 6867, cleared the House Oct. 3 368-28.

    The bill now goes to President Bush, who is expected to sign it.

    Update (Fri., Nov. 21): President Bush has signed the bill into law.



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 06:06:01 PM



    Legistorm Launches Searchable Earmarks Website

    There's been a lot of buzz in Washington and around the country the last couple of years about earmarks. It's the new four letter word of politics, with practically every Senator and Representative talking publicly about how awful they are. Yet earmarks in and of themselves are really not the problem. It is the process by which they are enacted that is usually where we run into trouble. The secretive, back-room addition of an earmark to legislation at the last minute, without review, in order to reward powerful special interests, campaign contributors, or other politically connected individuals or groups is where the real proble lies.

    The best way to combat that is through transparency, and because of the efforts of a few individuals and organizations, the information on the size and scope of earmarks has improved considerably. Taxpayers for Common Sense (TCS), a watchdog group here in Washington, was at the forefront of publishing earmark information. On February 14, 2008, they published a complete database of FY 2008 earmarks, made available on their website for downloading in an excel file.

    This week, the group Legistorm has joined in the earmarks game as well, with a searchable website that allows users to have better access to peruse the database put together by TCS. They launched the website this week and it builds upon the TCS work to promote better access to earmarking data. And lucky for all of us, the new site and the TCS data includes executive branch earmarks - or those earmarks requested by the president. Most of this data is left out of an earlier attempt at earmark transparency put up by OMB.

    It looks as though both Legistorm and TCS will continue to have their work cut out for them next year. The House Republican caucus rejected a proposed short-term moritorium on earmark requests today:

    For the second year in a row, the House GOP caucus Thursday rejected an effort to limit its members' requests for special projects, or earmarks, in this case a short-term moratorium.

    Check out the new resource and search through tens of billions of dollars in earmarks.



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 05:09:20 PM



    Oversight Coming to a TARP Near You?

    After $290 billion in TARP funds committed, President Bush and the Senate are just now getting around to installing the TARP Inspector General. Working quickly to confirm Bush's choice for Special Inspector General for TARP (SIGTARP), Neil M. Barofsky, the Senate Banking Committee got down to business and heard testimony from the nominee yesterday(BNA [$]):

    Barofsky, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, said that, if confirmed by the Senate, he will be calling on TARP contractors and asset managers to provide his office with "real-time information" to guard against misuse of public funds.

    Barofsky also said he will review past TARP-related transactions, including contracts already reached between Treasury and private parties, and said his office will be vigilant in rooting out conflicts of interest.

    "I think it will be a top priority, if I am confirmed, to make sure that there is strong and vigorous enforcement of the conflict of interest provisions and to make sure that those provisions are sufficient," Barofsky told Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.).

    This is all very reassuring to hear, even if the nomination is way overdue.

    Barofsky also told Sen. Robert Menendez (D—N.J.) that, under the EESA, he would, as Special Inspector General "would have full and complete access" to any documents held by the Treasury Department.

    Any chance those documents make it to the public?

    Meanwhile, Senators Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) have introduced legislation to ostensibly aimed at strengthening SIGTARP. Their bill "will allow the IG to quickly begin hiring staff without going thorough the normal civil service process" and "expand the authority of the IG to cover any and all action conducted as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, including assistance to homeowners and foreclosure mitigation efforts." (h/t POGO blog)

    Reuters: "Quick approval sought for US bank bailout watchdog"
    DowJones Newswire:"Dodd Pledges To Move Quickly On Confirmation Of TARP Inspector"

    (AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke)



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 11:23:31 AM



    PAYGO in a Sour Economy

    House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) provides us with a teaching moment (BNA [$]):

    House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Nov. 18 House Democrats still hope to adhere in 2009 to the pay-as-you-go budget rule they put in place at the start of the 110th Congress, but acknowledged the troubled economy and other priorities may outweigh it.

    "We will continue to be committed to the principle of pay-as-you-go," Hoyer said at a speech at the National Press Club. "The reality, however, is that recovery legislation will raise the deficit in the short term. Fiscal hawk that I am, I still believe that that is the right course, because a wide consensus of economists tells us that deficit spending is both the way out of a recession like this one and the way to prevent even more catastrophic decline."

    Hoyer makes the classic mistake of believing that PAYGO stops all deficit spending. What PAYGO actually does is (theoretically) prevent deficit increases resulting from tax cuts or increases in mandatory spending. Much of the proposed spending in the Senate's latest stimulus package (like unemployment insurance and infrastructure spending) would increase discretionary spending, which does not have to be offset with revenue increases or spending cuts.

    However, some of the spending proposals in the Senate package do increase mandatory spending (like increased Medicaid spending) and would have to be offset in PAYGO-land. But to say that this would wreck the economy is, well, just plain wrong.

    Keynesian economics tells us that increasing budget deficits (or reducing budget surpluses) spurs economic growth. Fidelity to PAYGO, because it enforces deficit neutrality, would be economically neutral. True: 100 percent deficit-neutral budget changes would be a mistake, as now is the time to increase the deficit to boost economic growth, but adherence to PAYGO would have no impact on the economy.

    So, yes, deficit spending is absolutely necessary right now. Adhering PAYGO, however, would not stop Congress from pursuing this course of fiscal policy.

    Image by Flickr user foundphotoslj used under a Creative Commons license.



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 09:44:01 AM



    Wednesday, November 19, 2008

    Orszag to head up OMB?

    The National Journal has been reporting this week that current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Peter Orszag is in line to head up the Office of Management and Budget in the upcoming Obama administration. Orszag formerly served as a senior economic adviser during the Clinton administration and held a post in the economics studies program at the Brookings Institution.

    Orszag has been impressive in his two year stint as the head of the CBO, which he began in January, 2007 and I think he would be an excellent choice to run the OMB for Obama. BudgetBlog readers will certainly know that we have high esteem for Dr. Orszag.



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 12:11:31 PM



    Tuesday, November 18, 2008

    Change We Can Believe In?

    CQ published an infuriating article ($) this morning that explores Sen. Max Baucus' (D-MT) health care reform proposals, with a particular focus on whether those reforms will be implemented in a budget neutral way.

    Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said Monday that he hopes to make sure a health care overhaul proposal he released last week is paid for over a 10-year period. But he left open the possibility that it would not comply with pay-as-you-go budget rules over five years, or perhaps at all.

    "There are going to be some upfront costs, but they'll be investments," Baucus said after speaking at a Brookings Institution seminar on health care reform. "Over 10 years, some of the bulk of the upfront investments will be offset by cost reductions. But that's over a 10-year period."

    The budget rules, which Democrats adopted at the beginning of the 110th Congress, generally require legislation authorizing new spending to be offset with spending decreases elsewhere or with tax increases. Democrats have often pointed to the budget rules as evidence of their fiscal discipline.

    I've got a bit of an issue with that last sentence - or perhaps my issue is with the Democrats. They do like to cite PAYGO rules as evidence of their fiscal discipline. And it is good they voted to reinstate those rules in early 2007. But to be fiscally responsible, they actually need to follow the rules rather than waiving them whenever they please. Unfortunately, their commitment to PAYGO has been much more rhetorical than real over the last two years. The CQ article goes on to state that Democrats will feel pressure from their supporters, particularly labor unions, to pass health care reform regardless of costs. That's comforting. Who is steering this ship anyway?

    The Republicans have been no better. In the same article, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Republican Charles Grassley (R-IA) states that "paying for health care reform needs to be done in an intellectually honest way for the fiscal health of our country." Is Grassley serious? I almost fell out of my chair when I read that. It leaves me wondering why Grassley hasn't had any problems with eight years of irresponsible, reckless, and downright stupid justifications for passing budget-busting tax cuts at any cost?

    He hasn't seem too concerned with the fiscal health of our country when he has repeatedly advocated that since the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) was never intended to impact millions of Americans, we might as well not pay for repealing it. That's what fiscal responsibility is about - intentions.

    Grassley can't even be honest about the money-suck that is the IRS's private tax collection program, which has repeatedly been shown to cost the government more money than it brings in. Now he's seen the light and wants to be intellectually honest about budgeting and being fiscally responsible? That's not change we can believe in.

    Image by Flickr user PhotoJonny used under a Creative Commons license.



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 01:48:31 PM



    Wednesday, November 12, 2008

    House Definitely Maybe Returning for Lame-Duck Session

    CQ Politics:

    [Speaker of the House Nancy] Pelosi [(D-CA)] and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev. — whose chamber will return for a post-election session next week — have called for Congress to pass an economic stimulus package and Tuesday added plans for billion of dollars in new aid for Detroit's struggling automakers. But Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland have said they won't bring the House back unless President Bush and Senate Republicans agree to allow a stimulus and the auto industry aid to become law.
    And yet, just yesterday, Speaker Pelosi was saying something else.

    In separate statements, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) asserted the need to hold a post-election session to bolster efforts to help the beleaguered auto industry.

    "I am confident Congress can consider emergency assistance legislation next week during a lame-duck session," Pelosi said in a statement, "and I hope the Bush administration would support it."

    Image by Flickr user Thomas Hawk used under a Creative Commons license.





    Paulson: Troubled Asset Relief Program Will Not Buy Troubled Assets

    Rethinking the crux of the financial markets crisis and its solutions, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced today that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), originally intended to take toxic financial assets off the books of lending institutions to spur market liquidity, will not be used to purchase such assets.

    Over these past weeks we have continued to examine the relative benefits of purchasing illiquid mortgage-related assets. Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use TARP funds, but we will continue to examine whether targeted forms of asset purchase can play a useful role, relative to other potential uses of TARP resources, in helping to strengthen our financial system and support lending. But other strategies I will outline will help to alleviate the pressure of illiquid assets.

    This statement ultimately undermines the "Do Anything" approach to legislating. When Paulson made his initial pitch for a Wall Street bailout, lawmakers correctly balked. While we noted that Congress should proceed deliberately, they instead rushed a legislative counter-proposal and quickly passed it. And although various objections to such a bailout were offered, one offered by economists was that the underlying problem (and its ultimate solution) of the financial markets crisis was not entirely clear.

    Thankfully (I think), the TARP legislation was written with enough flexibility that it allows Paulson to abandon the explicit purpose of the program in favor of adopting strategies (like injecting capital into banks in exchange for equity). Paulson continues to search for an appropriate solution.

    For better of worse, Congress crafted a law that gave the Treasury Secretary authority to throw $700 billion at, well, whoever for whatever. Will it work? Who knows? Congressional hearings and empirical research might have helped identify the problem and solution sooner. Instead, Washington decided to the correct course of action was to freak out and throw bails of cash at whoever is asking for it.

    A learning moment? Hmmm...

    Image by Flickr user kenyee used under a Creative Commons license.



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 01:40:39 PM



    Trust But Verify

    Argh! More bad news about the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA), the watchdog at the Department of Defense that is supposed to watch out for waste and fraud within the agency's enormous contracting apparatus.

    DCAA was in the news a lot this summer (see here, here, here, and here) after information surfaced showing the DoD spends too little on contract oversight and interferes with current auditors to restrict the length and scope of investigations. It doesn't look like things have improved much since then.

    The Associated Press reported yesterday that defense contractors, particularly the Bechtel Group, had "chronic failures" in handing over financial records and other documents to the DCAA needed to perform audits.

    The article also cites Raytheon, Northrup Grumman, and KBR as giving the DCAA trouble. In the widely publicized KBR incident over the summer, top officials at the DCAA would not back up auditors who balked at over $1 billion in unsubstantiated payments.

    One auditor quoted in the AP article from yesterday hits the nail on the head about why strict oversight by agencies like the DCAA are so important:

    The Bechtel episode illustrates how tolerant the agency can be when defense contractors slow the government's access to paper records and databases. There is no way to know how often DCAA withholds payments because it does not keep track. And it has not used its subpoena power in 20 years.

    "We have been basically on the trust system for years," said the auditor who attended the May meeting. "It did not work on Wall Street and it is not working for federal contracts," said the two-decade veteran of the agency who spoke on condition of anonymity because DCAA employees are not allowed to publicly discuss their work.

    Trust system? Seriously? What ever happened to "trust but verify?"



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 08:52:05 AM



    Monday, November 10, 2008

    Treasury Releases TARP Transaction, First Tranche Reports

    On the Depart of Treasury Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA, AKA TARP) website, the Department has posted, according EESA law, a list of transactions made under TARP. And here they are, all $125 billion* worth of them:

    Also in accord with the law, Treasury has released its First Tranche Report to Congress. Among other things, the report includes:

    • A description of all the transactions made during the reporting period.
    • A description of the pricing mechanism for the transactions.
    • A justification of the price paid for, and other financial terms associated with, the
    • transactions.

    However, ProPublica, is one step ahead of Treasury. In addition to transactions completed under TARP, ProPublica is tracking which banks have are participating in TARP's Capital Purchase Program but have yet to receive funds. Their tally indicates that Treasury has committed over $172 billion to banks.

    *The total amount of completed transactions is $115 billion. The last transaction on the above list is pending Merrill Lynch's merger with Bank of America


    Posted by Craig Jennings, 06:00:14 PM



    TARP Accounting: More than One Way to Follow the Law?

    The Congressional Budget Office reported in its Monthly Budget Review for October that the federal budget deficit for that month will be $134 billion. But CBO predicts that when the Treasury Department releases the official deficit number later this month, it will be $232 billion.

    The $98 billion gap is the product of differing interpretations on how purchases under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) should be scored. According to CBO:

    ...the stock investment and associated warrants should not be recorded on a cash basis but on a net present value basis, accounting for market risk, as specified in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. CBO's preliminary estimate of $17 billion for the present value cost is included in its estimate of $134 billion for the October deficit.

    So far, Treasury has purchased $115 billion in bank stocks. Treasury says that this will increase the budget deficit by $155 billion, while CBO says it should increase the deficit by $17 billion.

    This is an interesting development, as the potential impact on the budget deficit could be hundreds of billions of dollars, depending on whether Treasury follows the law, and uses a present value calculation -- the method employed in CBO's estimate, or if it continues to use a cash basis of accounting. There are a number of ramifications that could result from these accounting differences.

    • A larger budget deficit figure may impose constraints on future fiscal policy
    • Cash-basis accounting of these assets deviates from current practice. For example, a student loan is not counted as a cash expenditure, but as an asset, as the government expects to see the principal repaid
    • The future sale of purchased bank stock would appear to decrease the budget deficit. This could open the door to manipulation by an administration seeking political gains to be had from decreasing the federal budget deficit.


    Continue reading for relevant text of EESA law...

    Posted by Craig Jennings, 03:55:20 PM



    New Rule Likely to Cut Health Care for the Poor

    The Bush administration is continuing its push to finalize hundreds of new regulations in an effort to cement its legacy before the new administration takes power on Jan. 20 next year. Also called "midnight regulations," these rules tend to get rammed through the regulatory review process before the lights go out on an administration, regardless of process violations or self-imposed cutoffs.

    The Reg team here at OMB Watch is doing a fantastic job tracking these regulations, the vast majority of which benefit industries and corporations by relaxing or eliminating economic, environmental, health, and safety rules.

    Yet another example appeared in the New York Times on Friday, this time targeting health care for low-income Americans. Robert Pear reports:

    WASHINGTON — In the first of an expected avalanche of post-election regulations, the Bush administration on Friday narrowed the scope of services that can be provided to poor people under Medicaid's outpatient hospital benefit.

    Public hospitals and state officials immediately protested the action, saying it would reduce Medicaid payments to many hospitals at a time of growing need.

    The new rule conflicts with efforts by Congressional leaders and governors to increase federal aid to the states for Medicaid as part of a new economic action plan.

    The Bush administration claims it is just trying to pay for services "more accurately and appropriately," while others say this is significant change to a long established Medicaid policy - that states get to define hospital outpatient services. Even if the Bush administration claim is true (and I've got my doubts), the practical effect is going to be fewer services for low-income folks covered through Medicaid. That's a shame.



    Posted by Adam Hughes, 03:30:29 PM



    Friday, November 07, 2008

    Stimulus on the Installment Plan

    On Thursday, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said that she is considering a two-stage economic stimulus strategy. The first would be a bill totalling $60 billion to $100 billion (composed of what exactly, she didn't say) and would be passed in November during a lame-duck session of Congress. The second bill would be composed of tax cuts and passed in early 2009 (totalling what exactly, she didn't say). Calling the first a "down payment," Pelsoi said that "the economy needs something sooner" and that Congress "take the longer view as soon as we take over in January."

    But on Friday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said that a lame-duck session would be unlikely if Congress and President Bush could not arrive at some sort of agreement on what an economic stimulus package should look like. However, guaranteeing (even more) loans to the failing auto industry could be sufficient to warrant a late-inning session.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (2nd-R) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (R), along with other members of Congress, participate in a meeting with executives from American car companies on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. (AFP/Getty Images/Brendan Hoffman)



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 04:43:33 PM



    Notes from the Economy: Unemployment

    It's up from 6.1 percent in September to 6.5 percent in October. Also according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy lost 240,000 jobs in October, as the year-to-date number of jobs shed rose to 1.2 million.

    October's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued to add jobs.

    The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 6.5 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1 million. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.8 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.7 percentage points.



    Posted by Craig Jennings, 09:24:15 AM



    Thursday, November 06, 2008

    GAO IDs Top Transition Issues

    The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has created a website "designed to help make the [presidential] transition an informed and smooth one across the federal government." In addition to suggesting myriad policies for various governmental issues like the long-term fiscal outlook, management challenges, and major cost-saving opportunities GAO highlights what it believes to be 13 issues demanding urgent attention. They are:

    • Oversight of financial institutions and markets,
    • U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan,
    • Protecting the homeland,
    • Undisciplined defense spending,
    • Improving the U.S. image abroad,
    • Finalizing plans for the 2010 Census,
    • Caring for service members,
    • Preparing for public health emergencies,
    • Revamping oversight of food safety,
    • Restructuring the approach to surface transportation,
    • Retirement of the Space Shuttle,
    • Ensuring an effective transition to digital TV, and
    • Rebuilding military readiness.


    Posted by Craig Jennings, 04:57:15 PM



    Tuesday, November 04, 2008

    Out of Crisis, Opportunity

    Writing in The New Yorker, Steve Coll meditates on the significance of the reactions certain political élites who are now lining up in favor using the government to better the economy.

    The country is fortunate in one respect: the sudden buckling of financial safeguards has put just about everyone in touch with his inner New Dealer. Even Alan Greenspan recently confessed to Congress a crisis of faith in self-regulation. Meanwhile, former free-market true believers in the Bush Administration have tossed out money from the public vault like looters...

    [...]

    Embedded in this festival of emergency measures, however, is an important and possibly durable ideological shift. Last week, in an op-ed in the Washington Post, Martin Feldstein, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Reagan Administration, and, more recently, an adviser to John McCain, endorsed large-scale spending on public works as a way to stimulate economic recovery....The essay's appearance indicated that a broad coalition is emerging, where none existed a year ago, in favor of New Deal-style expenditures on roads, bridges, broadband lines, alternative energy, and the like, to support economic recovery and future growth.

    If Coll's observation proves durable, then there will be greater political elbowroom -- to a greater or lesser extent depending on the outcome of today's contests, but room nonetheless -- to strengthen public investments.

    If you had your say, what would you move to the top of the agenda?

    Email us at , and let us know.







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