Via Kevin Drum, we may now know why CBO found an unexpected drop in Medicare spending this year. Actual spending hasn't gone down. Rather, the Bush administration is waiting until next fiscal year to pay some of its bills from this year. That way, some of the spending on services performed this year will get counted in the FY07 budget. And when the CBO puts out its FY07 budget projection, there'll be no pesky election to worry about.

Here's an excerpt from a great article on the scheme, from Barron's (sub. req'd).

The bureaucratic brainstorm was straightforward -- simple-minded is, perhaps, a more appropriate description -- don't pay doctors, hospitals and their army of auxiliaries tending to indisposed old folks and the afflicted disabled for their labors in the last nine days of the current fiscal year. Instead, send them a check for what you owe them, sometime after the first of October, the start of the government's fiscal '07. In essence, those doctors, hospitals et al. are making an involuntary loan of nine days' pay without interest.

That way, point out the gleeful budgeteers and Medicare pooh-bahs, all of whom presumably are glowing with health, Uncle Sam's Medicare tab this fading fiscal year will be $5.2 billion less than it otherwise would have been. Or at least would seem to be $5.2 billion less -- in Washington, as we all know, appearance and reality are not invariably the same phenomena.

Of course, this oh-so-clever stratagem would mean that next fiscal year's Medicare bill will be $5.2 billion more than it would have been. But, not to worry, those indefatigable financial watchdogs in the Office of Management and Budget and their henchmen in the uppermost reaches of Medicare are on the case. And we have every confidence that next year they'll make up for any untoward increases in costs by ceasing to send checks to doctors, hospitals et al. in August or even July, if necessary.

What Matt says.

I can't believe they're going to trying to kill Social Security again. There is, however, a new wrinkle this time around - President Bush wants to put Medicare and Medicaid on the chopping block as well. Didn't the Anti-Safety Net coalition learn its lesson last time - that Americans overwhelming do not support Social Security privatization?

From today's WaPo:

The Bush administration has begun sounding out lawmakers and other key figures about mounting a new bipartisan effort to rein in the costs of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security after the midterm elections, according to officials in the administration and on Capitol Hill.

[...]

Bush, for his part, appears fixated on the issue, even as he is focused on securing new immigration legislation and preoccupied by several world crises. Despite being forced to shelve his Social Security plan -- which included establishing private investment accounts and reducing guaranteed benefits down the road -- Bush regularly mentions his desire to tackle the issue again.

"We need to cut entitlement spending," the president said in one typical comment last month, as he reviewed the midyear budget numbers. "The easy fix is to say 'Let somebody else deal with it.' This administration is going to continue trying to work with Congress to deal with these issues."

Washington Post: President Remains Eager to Cut Entitlement Spending

Congress is obsessed with really bad ideas. Take this op-ed from the Campaign for America's Future. It puts it together that if the Republican grip on Congress gets tighter this November, they may bring up Social Security privatization once again.

The House leadership has similarly promised to bring Social Security privatization up in 2007. In July House Republican Majority leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, pledged to resume the push, saying “If I'm around in a leadership role come January, we’re going to get serious about this.” In June, the current chairman of the Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee and likely future chair of the full House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jim McCrery, R-La, told reporters that he intended to put Social Security back on the legislative agenda in 2007.

See their full report to check where your Congressperson stands on Social Security.

When will the Congressional leadership get that the public is not nearly as enamored of its ideas as they are? They failed on three seperate occassions to permanently roll back the estate tax, but vow to vote on it again. And as you may recall, President Bush went on a massive public relations blitz to promote his plan to privatize Social Security. The public didn't buy it then, and it won't buy it in 2007.

But hey, maybe this time they won't have to worry about what the public thinks. They could push it as filibuster-proof reconciliation bill, or, better yet, pile on the "sweeteners" and tie it to a minimum wage raise! Sheesh...