By and large, the Bureau of Economic Analysts (BEA) at the Department of Commerce announced this morning an estimated GDP figure for the first quarter of 2008 of 0.6 percent -- the exact same figure as the last quarter of 2007 -- which pushes us back from the brink of "official" economic recession, though we are by no means out of the woods. The BEA report includes this summary analysis:

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, private inventory investment, exports of goods and services, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and PCE for durable goods. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Note in particular the reference to residential fixed investment, reflecting a contracting housing sector, falling home prices and sales, and a rapid increase in home foreclosures, which are reaching an alarming rate. Per a RealtyTrac report released yesterday:

foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 649,917 properties during the first quarter, a 23 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 112 percent increase from the first quarter of 2007 -- one in every 194 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

These two developments, taken together, may mean increased support for targeted housing-sector related legislation now moving through Congress. What it means for broader stimulus measures is uncertain, though the April unemployment report, due out on Friday, may have considerable bearing on prospects for such measures.

For additional analysis of the GDP estimate and its contributing factors by Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, see CEPR's GDP Byte, here

In yesterday's Daily Fiscal Policy Report, we noted that real average weekly earnings in March were up compared to February, while they were down compared to March, 2007.

Today, the BLS released data on real median weekly earnings, which, like average weekly earnings, have declined since a year ago.

Median weekly earnings of the nation's 106.5 million full-time wage and salary workers were $719 in the first quarter of 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This was 3.8 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 4.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.

In case you didn't know (as I didn't 'til I stumbled on it), the Wall Street Journal maintains a number of statistical reports that economists use to gauge and forecast business conditions. These reports, issued by government agencies and business research groups, generally are accessible there for one month. Their Economic Indicators Archive is accessible here.

Among the reports:

• The Consumer Price Index
• The Employment Situation
• The Gross Domestic Product
• Initial Jobless Claims
• New Homes Sales

Good for what ails us.

Health Care -- Bipartisan Support for Blocking Bush Medicaid Rule: CQ reports ($) that a House bill that would block the president's Medicaid rule changes is gaining support among Republicans. The proposed rule changes would shift about $17.8 billion (over five years) in Medicaid costs to states. The bill, H.R. 5613, will be marked up today in the Committee on Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee.

War Spending -- Iraq Supplemental May Have Additional Stimulus Spending: After last week's deterioration of employment data released by the government, Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), along with Democratic House leaders, are calling for adding extension of unemployment benefits to the upcoming Iraq war spending bill. House Republicans have vowed to oppose additional stimulus spending. CongressDaily ($)

Inequality -- CBPP/EPI: Income Inequality Continues to Rise: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Economic Policy Institute have released a lengthy report analyzing state-by-state data on income trends. The report concludes that "The gap between the richest and poorest families...grew significantly in most states over the past two decades...In fact, the nation's longstanding trend of growing inequality accelerated since the late 1990s as incomes fell for poor families in a number of states." CBPP/EPI Report Executive Summary

Taxes -- "Extenders" Package Could Move Before End of May: Sen. Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) hopes to introduce, mark up and bring the extenders package of tax cuts to the Senate floor before the start of the Memorial Day Recess in May. The legislation would be fully offset, cover two years (2008 and 2009), and cost about $50 billion. Baucus would not pin down a date for introducing the measure, but stressed the need to get work done early: "We've got to do as much as we can during this work period." BNA ($)

While a loss of 80,000 jobs is troubling, an even more disturbing trend in the private job market continues. In March, the private sector shed 98,000 jobs, marking the fourth consecutive month to see private-sector losses.

(click on image to enlarge)

Dean Baker at Center for Economic and Policy Research has a good write-up of the situation:

Overall, the private sector has lost 296,000 jobs over the last three months, a decline of 97,000 per month. Not surprisingly, the weakness in the labor market is also affecting wage growth. Wages grew at just a 2.5 percent annual rate over the last quarter, well below the rate of inflation and down sharply from the 3.6 percent growth rate over the last year. The household survey showed a 0.3 percentage point jump in the unemployment rate to 5.1 percent, while the employment population ratio (EPOP) fell to 62.6 percent, the lowest rate since March of 2005.

This Tom the Dancing Bug cartoon is a great illustration of the incentives that motivate executives. (The image below is one panel of the full, four-panel comic.)

(Click to see the full comic)