Happy Fourth of July!
Just wanted to let our loyal BudgetBlog readers know we're going on a short hiatus next week. With Congress heading out of town for a short summer recess and the upcoming Fourth of July holiday next week, the Fiscal Policy team is heading out of town in order to escape the heat for some well-deserved vacation. This means, though, that the BudgetBlog will be dormant next week.

But don't despair. Craig and I will return in one short week on July 7 to continue to bring you all the news, gossip, information, and analysis on federal fiscal policy you've come to expect.

Hope everyone has a safe and festive Independence Day next week - be careful with those fireworks.

Yesterday's suspension vote in the House to extend unemployment insurance benefits by at least 13 weeks fell short of the required a two-thirds supermajority by a mere three votes -- perhaps attributable to the eleven members who did not vote.

This afternoon, the House voted again on the proposal as a stand-alone bill and, guess what? It passed precisely by a two-thirds, i.e., veto-proof, margin.

As Speaker Pelosi mentioned in a statement following today's vote, the bill does not only help the nation's unemployed workers, but the rest of us:

Extending unemployment benefits has the potential to help the entire American economy. According to the Congressional Budget Office, it is one of the most cost-effective and fast-acting ways to stimulate the economy because the money is spent quickly. For every $1 spent on unemployment benefits generates $1.64 in new economic demand.

The measure passed with support from 49 Republican House members, who bolted the Bush line opposing the bill, contained in yesterday's veto threat.

Today, the Bush Administration issued a veto threat against H.R. 5794, the Emergency Extended Unemployment Compensation Act of 2008.

Please read the following and see if you can spot the non sequitur:

The Administration is deeply committed to continually fostering an environment where every American who wants a job has a job. The Administration believes the best way to help workers is to create an environment that encourages job creation and to promote effective job training. To accomplish these goals, the Administration urges Congress to create more opportunities for American exporters by passing the pending free trade agreements with Columbia, Panama, and South Korea, make permanent the President's tax cuts that will expire over the next two years, and reform and reauthorize the Trade Adjustment Assistance program and the Workforce Investment Act. The Administration looks forward to continuing to work with Congress to enact these important measures. However, the Administration strongly opposes H.R. 5749. If H.R. 5749 were presented to the President, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill.

Oh, wait -- I think I get it. Those free trade agreements are with some pretty small countries with pretty small economies. In economies of small scale, the blessings of free trade really could make a difference with respect to unemployment...

... in Panama.

Congress has sent the president a bill that would, in addition to forcing free-riding federal contractors to pay payroll taxes, "allow soldiers receiving combat pay to have their money counted as income for the purposes of the Earned Income Tax Credit." (BNA email)

I realize that we blow a lot of cash on the military, but does it strike anyone as odd that some Americans getting shot at in a combat zone in service of their country are paid so little that they qualify for EITC?

As Dana noted in this morning's daily report, the unemployment numbers released this morning were bad enough to put unemployment insurance (UI) benefits extension back in play for the domestic spending section of the FY 08-09 war supp.

But the past couple of weeks have seen the release of a couple of other data points that should increase concern among lawmakers that the U.S. labor force has come into sour times.

• The number of continuing UI claims -- workers receiving UI benefits for more than one week -- has not been this high since March 2004. The number of continuing claims has been sharply increasing since Nov. 2007.

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• On Wed. (June 4), the Dept. of Labor reported that productivity in the first quarter was increasing at an annualized rate of 2.6% -- a healthy number. But that number -- the economic output per unit of labor -- is the result of employers scaling back hours, making workers worse off.

It should also be noted that May's 49,000 net job loss was buoyed by the addition of 17,000 government jobs; the private sector lost 66,000 jobs, continuing a six-month decline in private jobs.

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