...whose numbers would you use?

We've noted before (here, here, and here) OMB's propensity to make overly pessimistic projections of the deficit only to claim credit for "great improvements" when the actual deficit numbers are reported at the end of the fiscal year. Being the start of the fiscal year, it's time for the Administration to gaze upon its own unrealisitically high deficit projections and marvel at the reality of comparatively lower FY 2007's actual deficit.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.:

This year's budget results demonstrate the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy. This strength has translated into record-breaking revenues flowing into the U.S. Treasury and a continued decline in the federal budget deficit. (emphasis mine)

President Bush:

You know, last February, it was projected that our deficit would be $244 billion, and today the Director informed us that the deficit -- actual deficit is $163 billion. In other words, as a result of the hard work of the American people, this economy is growing; the growing economy has yielded more tax revenues than anticipated. And because of fiscal restraint, those tax revenues went to reduce our deficit. (emphasis mine)

Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations.

CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for FY 2007 was $160 billion, or 1.2 percent of the size of the overall economy. This figure represents about an $87 billion decline from the FY 2006 deficit of $248 billion, which was 1.9 percent of the economy.

CBO's Monthly Budget Review, October 2007