Policy analysts say sweeping tax-law changes are unlikely in the next two years, no matter whether Democrats gain seats or Republicans retain control in the upcoming election.
Some Republicans would like to make permanent the Bush tax cuts, such as low capital gains and dividends rates, most of which expire in 2010. Meanwhile, some Democrats say they'd like to fix the alternative minimum tax -- right now it requires an annual adjustment to keep it from hitting a larger group of taxpayers -- but neither aim is likely to pass because major tax changes cost a lot of money, policy analysts say.
"Tax reform is imperative, but getting there in the next two years? I would say the odds are roughly zero," said Leonard Burman, director of the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. "Two years from now is the run up to the 2008 presidential election and I'd say it's virtually impossible that any Congress pass anything as controversial as tax reform."