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Monday, January 28, 2008
State of the Union: What To Watch Out For
Two Old Chestnuts, This Time With Meaning
President Bush's last State of the Union (SOTU) tonight may be a sorry story of a slumping economy and a surge most striking in its slowness. He may set out a litany of missions unaccomplished, dressed up as ambitious agenda items for his final turn -- not. Reprise his failed attempts to revamp Social Security and overhaul immigration rules? uh-huh. More likely he will set the bar low, and focus on low-hanging fruit, easily achieved but of little real import. Let's take a close look at two budget and tax issues the president is expected to raise tonight:
-- Earmarks: Bush is likely to announce a pledge (but not demand a statute that would bind future presidents) to veto any fiscal 2009 spending bills that does not cut the number of earmarks in half from 2008 levels. He may also use the occasion to ballyhoo an Executive Order (aka, a presidentital lay-up) he plans to issue limiting funding to earmarks that appear only in approrpiations bills, not air-dropped into conference reports without the force of law.
This is exciting stuff. Bush is going out on a limb, promising to do what Congress did on its own last year -- cutting earmarks in half -- to wild applause general indifference among the American people. Even the congressional GOP is unimpressed; they know that Bush could have refused to fund earmarks not included in the statutory language of spending bills. He promised to do so in last year's SOTU. He must think we're not listening. And he may be right.
-- Tax Cuts: Here we go again. The president's parrot-like response to any problem. A war to fund costing hundreds of billions of dollar a year? Would you like a tax cut with that? A $9 trillion nation debt that puts every family in six-figure hock to their kids and grand-kids? Precisely the time not to roll back his signature 2001/2003 tax cuts for the wealthy.
But it's his last chance -- how can he resist? In fact, if Bush does not argue during the SOTU for permanent extension of these cuts -- the cornerstone of his fiscal legacy -- it will signal surrender, or a concession to the debt. Time was when this was low-hanging fruit; all Bush needed to say was "cut" and Congress would yell "how low?" No longer, but does he know that, or care? The current approval rating for his handling of the economy is 28 percent. He might do well to leave well enough alone. But don't expect him to.
Posted by Dana Chasin
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