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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
The Best Laid Plans
Over on Capital Gains and Games (a favorite blog of the Budget Brigade), budget guru Stan Collender and Pete Davis muse, in a couple of posts, on the presidential candidates' budget plans. They emphasize the point that, as much as they may want to implement deficit-increasing tax and/or expenditure plans, the market may have other plans.
First, Collender reminds us that in the post-Reagan world, economic policy options were limited.
The bond market "vigilantes" -- the same people who forced the Clinton administration to propose and push for deficit reduction -- are starting to say that the moon, stars, and planets may line up again in 2009 to force the next president to do the same thing.
In a follow-up post, Davis explains how large, persistent deficits impact the economy. This may give the next president pause (Davis hopes) and put the kibosh on his plans.
 High real interest rates choked off recovery from the 1980 recession until early 1983, and real growth turned down again in 1986, but stopped short of a recession. The first chart [shown] also shows the "neutral real rate" required to keep the economy at full production. With the credit crisis, it has moved negative, where it remains today. It will take us at least another year or two to come out of our economic "slowdown," and rising interest rates could easily choke that recovery off.
Posted by Craig Jennings
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