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Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Smaller Deficit Could Lessen Pressure For Fiscal Discipline
Congressional observers and Wall Street analysts have once again projected down the U.S. fiscal deficit for 2005, with some believing the deficit could be almost $100 billion smaller than the White House's initial projection from January of $427 billion. Increased tax receipts and stronger than projected economic growth have contributed to the smaller deficit projection. Through May, receipts have increased 15.5 percent as compared to the same period in 2003, outpacing a 7.1 percent increase on the spending side, and the economy grew at a rate of 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2005.
Yet the lower deficit projection is hardly news for celebrating. Even $325 billion - the low mark for projections - would be the third largest deficit in history (the two others, incidentally, were in 2003 and 2004). And despite the better economic numbers, deficits are projected to remain for decades.
The Bush administration has hailed the smaller projections as good news and says it is part of the plan to cut the deficit in half by 2009. What the administration does not say, however, is that after 2009, if current policies stay in place, the deficit will start to rise again. The government is currently running a structural deficit, meaning that no matter how larger our economic growth becomes, the current tax code will not be able to bring in enough revenue to pay for current programs, policies, and priorities. This is due to a lack of a long-term outlook for fiscal planning in the government and lack of discipline among the GOP in Congress to resist yet another round of unpaid-for tax cuts. This trend continues to be troubling.
Posted by Adam Hughes
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