“The state of the union is getting stronger.” That is how President Obama characterized the current state of the union. But, as we wrote in our State of the Union preview on Tuesday, we still have a long way to go before the economy is back on its feet. In our article, we recommended doing away with the looming budget cuts, increasing taxes on capital gains and financial transactions, and using the additional revenue to pay for more infrastructure projects and public protections. So what fiscal issues did Obama talk about in his speech on Tuesday?
One of the main themes of the speech was fairness, which we said was important for creating opportunity and building a vibrant middle-class. First, the president again called for the tax code to follow the “Buffett Rule,” which would ensure that millionaires such as financier Warren Buffett pay at least as much in taxes as their secretaries. In his “blueprint” document accompanying the speech, Obama interprets the rule as meaning millionaires should have an effective tax rate of at least 30 percent.
However, he is unclear on exactly how this would be accomplished. The only specific policy change mentioned is limiting tax breaks for millionaires, saying “there is no reason that those making over $1 million per year should get any tax subsidies for housing, health care, retirement, and child care.” (And even this policy provision is ambiguous; is the president proposing eliminating itemized deductions and all credits for anyone making more than a million dollars?) But this policy change alone most likely won’t increase most millionaire’s tax rates, since their low rates are often a function of the preferable tax treatment of capital gains.
As we wrote in our Watcher article, the best way to increase fairness in the tax code is to treat capital gains (which is profit from stocks, bonds, and other investments) as ordinary income (such as wages). Right now, the top capital gains rate is less than half the top rate for wages, which allows millionaires, such as Mitt Romney, to have a low tax rate. While the president has called for allowing the upper-income Bush tax cuts to expire, which would bring the top capital gains tax rate up to 20 percent from 15 percent, he has resisted advocating for taxing capital gains like wages (for the wealth, this would mean a tax rate of 35 percent on capital gains). However, his argument for millionaires to pay at least 30 percent of their income in taxes functionally amounts to the same thing.
We also wrote about infrastructure spending in our State of the Union preview, saying that such spending (in the form of grants to the states) is one of the best ways the government can boost the economy. In his speech, the president proposed increasing infrastructure spending, and paying for it with half of the savings from the troop drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. This proposal would add approximately $500 billion to infrastructure spending over the next ten years, based on estimates included in the president’s fall deficit reduction plan. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that much spending could – thanks to multiplier effects - spur the economy by more than a trillion dollars, while giving the nation’s workforce a helping hand.
The most disappointing budget news was that the president appears to be sticking by the cuts contained in the Budget Control Act (BCA, also known as the debt ceiling deal). He praised these cuts several times in his speech, and even called for more deficit reduction on top of the BCA. These cuts of almost two trillion dollars over the next nine years will slow our nascent recovery. However, if taxes on the wealthy are raised and all the Bush tax cuts expire, such cuts won’t be necessary to reduce the deficit.
The BCA's budget cuts are already written into law, whereas many of the changes Obama called for in his State of the Union speech require congressional approval. So, if nothing new passes this year (with Congress mired in partisan gridlock and elections swiftly approaching, this seems likely), the budget cuts will go forward as planned, and we’ll have a de facto austerity budget in place. This will be damaging to the economic recovery effort and would set back efforts to make this a more fair and equitable nation.
Image by Flickr user Secretary of Defense used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 01/26/12; 0 comments)
On Dec. 31, 2011, Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board Chairman Earl Devaney stepped down after leading the Board for almost three years. Devaney did more than anyone else to ensure Recovery Act spending was as transparent as it was, and his presence will be sorely missed.
While he didn't create the transparency provisions in the Recovery Act (those were written into the law or created by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)), Devaney implemented the law's requirements. He and his team created the Recovery.gov website from scratch in remarkably little time and did a great deal to ensure that recipients understood their reporting responsibilities under the law. As a former inspector general (for the Department of the Interior), Devaney placed a strong emphasis on finding and preventing fraudulent contracting and wasteful spending, creating the Recovery Operations Center. He also insisted on making maps of Recovery Act spending the focal point of Recovery.gov, arguing that the government needed to do more to display information in useful ways.
Devaney understood the importance of providing information to the public and talked of empowering an army of citizen inspectors general. We appreciated the fact that he frequently reached out to the transparency community to get feedback and guidance. When we raised concerns about the quality of the data from the first rounds of recipient reporting, the Board moved quickly to fix the problems it could, such as automatically filling in some data fields for recipients (for example, pulling in company information from existing contracting databases) and creating algorithms to spot potential red flags (such as recipients reporting that they had spent more money than they had received).
Devaney also championed transparency beyond the Recovery Act. He has been a vocal supporter of unique identifiers for recipients of federal funds, a thorny problem that has long plagued federal spending transparency. For the past six months or so, he has also been the head of the Government Accountability and Transparency (GAT) Board, created by President Obama last year to "provide strategic direction for enhancing the transparency of Federal spending and advance efforts to detect and remediate fraud, waste, and abuse." The GAT Board's recent report advocated for many reforms, most importantly centralizing spending databases and streamlining reporting obligations, in addition to calling for a universal system of unique identifiers for contracts and grants throughout the federal government.
Devaney will be replaced by current Education Department Inspector General Kathleen Tighe. Tighe has been on the Recovery Board since March 2010, serving as the chair of the Board's Accountability Committee since March 2011. Interestingly, Tighe will not be stepping down from her inspector general role, which possibly indicates a diminution of the position of Recovery Board chair. The chair was a full-time job for Devaney, who stepped away from his Department of the Interior position to lead the Board, and Devaney clearly had Vice President Biden's ear, meeting frequently with him to discuss various issues related to the Board's work.
The chair's reduced prominence is likely a reflection of the administration's desire to move on from the Recovery Act. With most of the Recovery Act money already spent, Tighe's job will largely be overseeing the dissolution of the Board and the application of lessons learned from the Recovery Act to the entire federal government, a process Devaney has already started with the GAT Board. There's still much to be done to improve federal spending transparency, but hopefully, even in a part-time role, Tighe will bring to her new position just as much passion and success as Devaney.
Image by Flickr user OversightandReform.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 01/06/12; 2 comments)
Even though the 2012 fiscal year (FY) began more than two months ago, Congress only recently put the finishing touches on this year’s budget. Over the weekend, the House and the Senate approved a funding package wrapping all of the outstanding annual appropriations bills into one. In doing so they stripped out many, but not all, of the controversial legislative provisions, known as policy riders.
The overall spending level for this year’s budget had been set in the summer by the debt ceiling deal, but it took the end of the so-called Super Committee to clear the way for the year’s final spending bills. Last month, Congress passed three appropriations bills – Transportation-Housing, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Agriculture – which had few controversial riders. Last week, Congress reached an agreement on the remaining nine bills, which fund everything from the Defense Department to Congress itself, and are worth more than a trillion dollars.
Three of the remaining bills - Financial Services, Labor-Health and Human Services-Education, and Interior-Environment - had threatened to hold up the entire process. They contained some of the most controversial issues Congress is currently grappling with, such as financial regulatory reform, the health care overhaul, and environmental protections. Congressional Republicans are intent on rolling back some of the gains Democrats have made in these areas over the past few years, and the battle had been playing out, in part, in these funding bills. For months, Republicans tried to defund important safeguards and reforms or undo them completely with targeted policy riders.
In the past, OMB Watch prepared an analysis of the annual appropriations bills, examining the policy riders they contained. For instance, we found more than 75 riders on the first three bills passed this year. However, with this most recent appropriations package, Congress deliberately left the public in the dark by releasing the bill’s language only days before final votes where scheduled. The bill stretches almost 1,400 pages, and it would have been impossible to fully catalogue all of its riders, never mind perform any meaningful analysis of them, before the bill’s passage (the House released the bill only three days before the final vote).
Even though the bill has already been approved by both houses of Congress, reporters and public interest groups continue to sift through it, trying to find out what Congress actually passed. While it seems that negotiators stripped the nine funding bills of their most controversial policy riders, many were left in. One rider prevents the government from enforcing new light bulb efficiency standards, while others prevent funding for a range of programs in Washington, DC. Another rider prevents the administration from fully implementing a proposed executive order which would have required contractors to disclose their contributions to political candidates when bidding on government contracts. A fourth, highlighted by the Natural Resources Defense Council, potentially weakens clean air permitting. With previous bills as a guide, it’s likely that there are other riders hidden in this spending package.
Of course, the budget process isn’t supposed to work this way. Ideally, both houses pass budget resolutions, and all twelve appropriations bills work their way through committees and on to the House and Senate floors in order to become law. That way, committees can hold hearings on important issues and question government officials in public, and there’s plenty of time for constituents to weigh in before any bills reach a final vote. Legislators are also supposed to focus spending bills on just that - spending. Provisions on non-spending policy issues, such as environmental standards and energy efficiency rules, should be debated separately and openly, not buried inside an immense bill deliberately kept away from public view.
Hopefully, this process won’t be repeated next year. If Congress can get a faster start on the appropriations process and allow the normal, more transparent process to work, it will be harder to slip in the hidden policy riders that plagued this year's spending bills.
Image by Flickr user Kevin Burkett used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 12/21/11; 1 comment)
Late last week, Congress passed the first spending bill for fiscal year (FY) 2012, 48 days after it began. The bill, known as a minibus, is a bundle of three smaller appropriations bills, and collectively, the three bills are about a billion dollars lower than their level last year. Because the remaining nine spending bills required to keep the government running have yet to be approved, the minibus includes another stopgap spending measure, designed to keep the government open until Dec. 16. However, tucked inside the minibus is a litany of restrictions on spending designed to change non-budgetary federal policy. Even though congressional rules are supposed to prevent the practice of slipping policy initiatives into funding bills, the minibus includes 75 policy riders that affect everything from gun regulations to the weight of planes flying into New Jersey’s Teterboro Airport, and even declare that pizza is a vegetable.
[See the list of riders in the bill here.]
This spring, in the funding bill for FY 2011, House Republicans attached dozens of controversial policy riders. The riders would have created new policy on many issues, including greenhouse gases and abortion, and were inserted with little fanfare and no public debate. In effect, House Republicans were trying to create new laws by avoiding the normal legislative process. Fortunately, almost all were stripped out, except for a handful that only affected the District of Columbia.
According to an OMB Watch analysis, the minibus funding bill Congress passed on Thursday, Nov. 17 included at least 75 policy riders, some of which have been in appropriations bills for at least a decade. Over the past few weeks, as the House and the Senate conferenced their versions of the three bills, riders were added and dropped from both sets of bills. For instance, conferees dropped a rider preventing patents on human organisms, a rider that’s been attached for years, since a recent bill made the prohibition permanent. The bill also includes several new riders on firearms, including one relaxing rules on shotguns.
The conference report also changed a controversial policy rider to include language that wasn’t in either the House or Senate bill, impacting the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) rule. The GIPSA rule aims to level the playing field between livestock producers, contractors, and dealers. Unlike a similar policy rider in the House appropriations bill, the conference report’s rider does not prevent the USDA from finalizing the proposed GIPSA rule altogether. However, it effectively precludes USDA from issuing a number of the rule’s provisions that are considered crucial by the National Farmers Union and other agriculture groups.
The minibus includes a slew of other riders. It has two separate riders defunding ACORN, though the community organizing group is now defunct. Another prevents the Federal Aviation Administration from lifting weight limits at the Teterboro Airport, a provision that’s been added every year since 2003 (no other airports are specifically mentioned in the bill). The bill also includes two provisions changing the federal school lunch program, one to prevent limitations on potatoes in school lunches, and another classifying pizza as a vegetable.
With nine more appropriations bills left, which will likely be considered in one large package, Congress will be passing at least one more funding bill this year. This “omnibus” bill will include many controversial issues, including bank regulation, healthcare, and international aid, all of which will likely attract many more riders.
Image by Flickr user Instant Vantage used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 11/21/11; 2 comments)
Earlier this year, when Congress was finishing the long-overdue budget for fiscal year 2011, the House tried to use the must-pass spending bill to force adoption of dozens of "policy riders." These provisions would have done everything from preventing the regulation of greenhouse gases to prohibiting certain loans to mohair farmers. Fortunately, almost all of them were stripped out of the final bill. However, now, as Congress moves toward finishing the FY 2012 budget, Republicans in the House and Senate are once again attempting to bend the budget process to enact non-budget policies that can't pass on their own merits. Riders have no place in congressional spending bills.
With the new fiscal year already four weeks old, Congress is starting to get serious about the 2012 budget. Senate leadership is hoping to kick-start the appropriations process by passing the first of several "minibuses," this one combining three bills, which together fund the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, with some science programs thrown in as well.
According to analysis by OMB Watch staff, these three Senate bills contain at least 60 separate riders. Even though funding levels for the federal agencies covered by the bills are relatively noncontroversial, the attached riders contain hot-button issues. For instance, there are at least 12 policy riders limiting the government's power to regulate firearms, ranging from preventing the creation of a gun tracking database to making it easier to export firearm parts to Canada. There are two riders on abortion rights, even though none of these agencies handle much health policy. There are even two separate riders in the minibus preventing ACORN from receiving funding, despite the fact the community organizing group no longer exists. This is a bipartisan and bicameral problem, with both House and Senate appropriations bills full of riders.
The problem with policy riders, some of which have been regularly added to the appropriations bills for years, is that they subvert the normal legislative process. Normally, policy is created and debated in the committee charged with overseeing a particular set of issues and with overseeing the federal agency responsible for implementing and enforcing said policies. Including significant policy changes in appropriations bills subverts the normal processes of law-making, where elected representatives use hearings to gather information, to question experts, and to engage in debates that air a range of public opinions on a specific policy topic. Riders attached to appropriations bills do not undergo this level of scrutiny.
And when policy riders are added as amendments to bills, there is even less time for open and thoughtful evaluation. Senators have filed dozens of amendments to the current minibus, in addition to the riders already attached. Many of these amendments are quite radical. One proposed amendment would add a complex reporting requirement for federal employees working on climate change. There is almost no disclosure on which amendments the Senate is voting or notice about when the votes occur, effectively leaving the public locked out of debates on important policy matters. In the last week of debate, eight additional riders were added to the minibus as amendments, with more pending this week.
Fortunately, some opposition is building against these riders. In the House, Democrats are rallying behind a call to remove all riders from the appropriations bills, with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) leading the charge. The White House has likewise stated its opposition to riders, stating in a recent letter, "The Administration strongly opposes ideological and political provisions in these [appropriations] bills," indicating a willingness to veto any bill that goes too far.
While the Senate is still debating the current minibus and its many amendments, we urge Congress to reject any and all policy riders in its FY 2012 appropriations bills. Policy debates should occur in the open and be accessible to the public, not buried in spending bills voted on hurriedly without appropriate consideration.
Download the list of policy riders in the first minibus here.
Image by Flickr user nixter used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 10/31/11; 0 comments)
Earlier today, President Obama released a new plan for reducing the federal deficit, or the shortfall between revenues and spending. The plan is technically a set of recommendations for the Super Committee, which Congress created last month to find $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Obama’s plan isn’t ideal, but it is easily one of the best set of deficit reduction recommendations to come out of Washington in a while.
The recommendations' provisions cut about $3.1 trillion from the deficit over ten years, broken down as follows:
(Descriptions of the plan’s specific elements can be found here)
The plan also includes tax cuts and new spending, in the form of the recently released American Jobs Act (AJA), Obama’s "please-don’t-call-it-stimulus" stimulus bill worth $447 billion over the next two years. With the AJA attached, the recommendations are roughly in line with Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf's recent advice to the Super Committee on how to help the economy, which is essentially "spend now, pay for it later." According to the administration’s estimates, the jobs bill will help offset some of the damage the recent debt ceiling deal budget cuts will have on the economy and add some $300 billion to next year’s deficit. However, it will be paid for in later years with the tax increases, war savings, etc.
Notably, the best “deficit reduction” plan is still simply doing nothing. If Congress fails to act, at the end of next year, all the Bush tax cuts end, the Alternative Minimum Tax collects more revenue, and Medicare doctors take a pay cut (not that we necessarily support any of this happening). Collectively, these changes will save almost $5 trillion over ten years, making it a stellar deficit reduction plan (although we’re still not at a balanced budget, since there would still be a $4 trillion hole in the budget over the next ten years).
Outside of the military drawdown, the single largest spending cut comes from health care. The president’s plan would cut $320 billion from Medicare ($248 billion) and Medicaid ($72 billion), with heavy emphasis on cutting drug costs; reducing waste, fraud, and abuse; and realigning incentives for providers to provide higher quality care. Notably absent from the plan is a recommendation to increase the Medicare eligibility age. Additionally, the president has pledged to veto any bill that would cut Medicare "without asking the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations to pay their fair share."
The president’s proposal is far more progressive than anything that is likely to come out of the Super Committee, which is due to report to Congress by Thanksgiving. Many of the Republicans on the committee are staunchly opposed to increasing taxes, so any committee report will likely include large entitlement cuts offset by small, if any, tax increases. And, if the committee fails to produce a report, the debt ceiling deal automatically triggers cuts worth another trillion dollars from the federal budget.
As Washington Post blogger Ezra Klein points out, the plan should be more accurately seen as an opening in the next round of grand bargaining. No one, not even the administration, thinks this plan is going to be passed as-is. Instead, it sets out the starting positions, from which the Democrats and Republicans will negotiate. And in that sense, the new deficit reduction plan falls short of progressives' goals to significantly expand spending to boost job growth, adequately fund public protections, and increase investments in the nation's infrastructure and people. Instead, the plan pairs relatively moderate tax increases with small entitlement cuts, on top of the $1 trillion Congress already agreed to cut out of discretionary spending through the debt ceiling deal. But Obama’s plan, with its threat of a veto if the Super Committee cuts Medicare without raising upper-income and corporate taxes, is clearly preferable to both the Super Committee and the trigger.
Image by Flickr user Barack Obama used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 09/19/11; 5 comments)There’s a grand tradition in DC: the Friday afternoon news dump. Press secretaries from across the District save up any bad news, and then release it on Friday after the major news deadlines have passed. That way, articles won’t show up until the weekend, when most people aren't paying attention. In yet another example of this, the Senate Appropriations Committee, responsible for the government’s yearly funding bills, released four bills this afternoon, all of which had passed out of committee yesterday. And, sure enough, there, buried in one of the bills, is the Senate effectively slashing funding for transparency projects.
The cut in question is to the Electronic Government fund, which pays for projects such as USAspending.gov and the IT Dashboard (more about the fund and the effect of cuts here). The fund is overseen by the General Services Administration (GSA), specifically the same team which manages USA.gov, the federal government’s main information portal. Earlier this year, Congress cut the E-Gov fund from $34 million to $8 million, drastically reducing the fund’s ability to maintain current transparency tools, never mind create new ones.
The resulting outcry was heartening. A broad coalition of transparency and good-government groups pressed Congress to restore the funding, and Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) called the cuts “penny wise and pound foolish.”
A few months ago, the House of Representatives responded to the criticism in their appropriations bill by partially restoring the funding. The House bill combined the E-Gov fund with the Office of Citizen Services and Innovative Technologies (OCSIT), the GSA unit responsible for the E-Gov fund, and increased the new joint fund by $8 million. While this move increased the total level of funding to $50 million, the two funds used to have a combined budget of $71 million and President Obama called for $74 million for the two funds this year, so the total funding for important transparency projects was cut by about 30 percent.
The Senate appropriators' proposal released today reduces this funding even more, to $39 million for next year. Like the House, the Senate's bill also combines the two GSA funds, but it leaves the joint fund $3 million lower than the total amount allocated to the two funds this year, $42 million. This means there could be less money next year for projects such as Data.gov or Performance.gov, sites which allow public access to federal data sets and program performance information, and which help make the government more open and accessible.
It's unfortunate the Senate Appropriations Committee is trying to cut spending for transparency projects, some of which save the government millions of dollars a year and could easily pay for themselves, and even worse that it did so when it thought no one was looking. Ironically, at a time when Congress is scrounging for every last penny, both houses are about to underfund the very tools that will tell them how federal money is being spent.
The E-Gov fund should have robust funding to give the American people the transparency they deserve. The full Senate still needs to approve the bill, and OMB Watch strongly encourages it to restore the full amount of funding from the president's request.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 09/16/11; 5 comments)
As you might have heard, last week Congress finally negotiated an end to the debt ceiling crisis. The basics of the deal are well-known: Republicans agreed to raise the debt ceiling through the next election in exchange for significant spending cuts. But how does the deal actually work?
Our new FAQ should help you understand the details behind the deal. The procedures put in place by the new law are complex, and the final budgetary outcome will depend on a variety of factors. This document translates the law into understandable language, and lays out its potential outcomes.
If you have any questions we haven’t answered in the FAQ, let us know by leaving them in the comments section of this post. We’ll do our best to answer them and help make this complicated law as clear as possible.
Image by Flickr user o5com used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 08/11/11; 2 comments)
Add this to the list of the nation’s current budgetary woes: according to Bloomberg news, the Treasury is losing about $30 million a day, or close to $200 million a week, because Congress has allowed the Federal Aviation Administration’s congressional authorization to lapse and, as a result, Treasury isn’t collecting taxes on airplane tickets. The House of Representatives is trying to ram through a provision that will make it harder for aviation workers to unionize, and the debate is holding up the latest in a long, long line of short-term extensions of the FAA’s authorization. Although it has been extended twenty times since it expired in 2007, Congress failed to re-authorize the FAA by July 22, meaning Treasury no longer has the authority to collect airline taxes. To add insult to injury, airlines have used this as an opportunity to raise their prices and reap more profit from consumers.
In other words, while Congress is tearing itself apart over raising the debt ceiling and figuring out how to fix the nation’s deficit “problem,” its inactivity is costing the federal government hundreds of millions of dollars in forgone revenue. While that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the size of this year’s deficit, which is close to $1.6 trillion, a few hundred million dollars is still a significant amount of money. All in all, it’s yet another example of the ridiculous, hypocritical behavior that runs rampant in today’s Congress. If the House Republicans were serious about lowering the budget deficit, they shouldn’t be knowingly costing the government money while trying to force social policy through the FAA reauthorization.
Coincidentally, Congress isn’t the only jerk in this story. The major airlines are also proving their (lack of) mettle. With Treasury not collecting taxes, ticket prices should fall. Theoretically, airlines figure out what price they should charge, taking into account operating costs and a profit margin, and the government then taxes based on that price. Without taxes, the cost to consumers should fall to the base “what airlines charge” price. But that apparently isn’t the case. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, most airlines are actually raising their ticket prices to make up the difference, costing consumers approximately an extra 10 percent.
The Journal-Constitution cites Delta Airlines representatives (the same corporation pushing the anti-union provisions in the reauthorization) as blaming fuel costs, which are apparently quite high. NPR, on the other hand, quotes an airline industry rep as saying “This short-term additional revenue for airlines, which does not mean a fare increase for consumers, benefits all stakeholders—customers, employees and investors—by temporarily improving tiny industry margins to better cover costs and enable airlines to invest in their product and service.” But neither argument makes sense. If the airlines needed the money so much to cover rising fuel costs, why didn’t they raise their prices before? And the industry’s claim that it isn’t, in fact, raising fares on consumers is particularly galling.
In reality, the situation is a remarkably bald-faced grab for money. The airlines clearly have no qualms scooping up the money Congress apparently doesn’t want. Anyone want to take bets on whether ticket prices fall when the FAA is reauthorized and the Treasury starts collecting taxes again?
Image by Flickr user Crank Media Guy used under a Creative Commons license.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 07/28/11; 0 comments)Conservative members of Congress are not being very helpful in the debt ceiling debate. The Republican-led House of Representatives earlier this week voted through their "solution" to the problem in the form of the so-called “Cut, Cap, and Balance” bill. But the House likely only voted on the bill because they couldn’t get enough votes for the bill conservatives actually wanted: a balanced budget amendment filled with conservative policy goals. But with the Senate unlikely to pass the Cut, Cap, and Balance bill, Congress might turn to the next worse alternative: a plain balanced budget amendment.
The Cut, Cap, and Balance bill does what its name implies. First, it cuts the fiscal year (FY) 2012 budget, which Congress is currently debating, by $111 billion, putting non-security discretionary spending to pre-2008 levels. Next, it sets caps on spending for the next ten years, limiting spending to 19.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and likely requiring untold hundreds of billions of dollars in additional spending cuts.
While these two steps alone would drastically reshape the federal government, the last part of the plan is even worse. The “balance” part of the bill prevents the Treasury from raising the debt ceiling until Congress sends a balanced budget amendment to the states for ratifications. And not just any balanced budget resolution. The bill specifically says that Congress must approve of a bill such as House Joint Resolution (HJRes) 1.
HJRes 1 has been attacked (frequently by OMB Watch) for the fact that it isn’t about balancing the budget. With provisions limiting federal spending to 18 percent of GDP, a level last seen in the 1960s, and requiring congressional supermajorities for raising revenue or increasing the debt limit, the amendment before Congress is far different from the balanced budget amendments considered back in the Clinton era. If HJRes 1 were in effect today, it would require cuts of about $632 billion for FY 2012, more than ten times larger than the FY 2011 cuts passed earlier this year.
Fortunately, it seems that our message is getting through. Despite balanced budget amendments easily passing the House and coming one vote short in the Senate in the late 1990s, HJRes 1 is not getting nearly as much support. Many members of Congress who had supported the amendment in the past are not supporting it today, citing the additional provisions.
In fact, the lack of support is likely why the House instead voted on Cut, Cap, and Balance the other night. Faced with a vote, HJRes 1 by itself probably would not have reached the 2/3rds threshold necessary to approve a Constitutional amendment. So, instead, House leadership put forward a regular bill, which only requires a majority vote to succeed, that merely requires the future passage of HJRes 1. That way leadership can go into the election saying that the House “voted for” the balanced budget amendment without taking the tough loss of failing to clear the difficult constitutional hurdle with HJRes 1. Win-win.
But the demise of the Cut, Cap, and Balance bill may clear the way for a “plain vanilla” balanced budget amendment such as HJRes 2. That amendment strips away the most controversial aspects of HJRes 1, although it still requires an impossible supermajority vote in both houses in order to raise the debt ceiling (and the current battle in Congress should demonstrate how good of an idea that is). Accordingly, HJRes 2 has almost a hundred more cosponsors than its more drastic cousin, leaving it within reach of 2/3rds support and far more likely to actually pass the House.
While there isn’t a similar bill yet in the Senate, since every member of the Republican caucus supports the Senate version of HJRes 1, a plain balanced budget amendment would only need eighteen Democratic votes to pass. A vote on such a bill in the Senate would likely be another nail-biter, an ugly battle over the vote of every moderate member. But since HJRes 1 would only garner a handful of Democratic votes at best in the Senate, a plain amendment stands a far better chance of passing.
In a sense, the focus on HJRes 1 and its conservative provisions is unfortunate, since even the plain balanced budget amendment would wreck the American economy. As we have written in the past, a normal balanced budget would restrict the government’s ability to respond to economic crises, slowing our already anemic recovery. Make no mistake: a plain balanced budget amendment, even one with provisions protecting certain programs, would be just as bad as HJRes 1. Both would do great harm to the nation at the worst possible moment.
The House’s Cut, Cap, and Balance bill will tentatively come up for a vote in the Senate on Friday, and it seems likely to go down in defeat. Hopefully, the failure of the bill will be the last we hear of a balanced budget amendment. If not, and Congress does switch to a pared back version, the no votes of thirteen states may be the only thing stopping the inclusion of a balanced budget amendment in the Constitution.
(Sam Rosen-Amy 07/21/11; 7 comments)