Merry Christmas, America: Uncle Sam isn't going to Default on His Debt

 

When Senate Republicans and Democrats reached a compromise on Tuesday to allow a final health care vote earlier than planned on Christmas Eve, they also made room to finish off the year with a vote to raise the nation's debt limit temporarily.

Yes, That's Your Present

This is good news for all of you that didn't want to see the economy collapse this holiday season, as the government cannot legally borrow more money than Congress has authorized. The Treasury Department had told Congress that it had to raise the limit before the end of December and the House passed its patch on Dec. 16. The temporary raise will set up a showdown between Democrats and the GOP – with a handful of conservative Dems tagging along – over debt and spending in 2010.

According to a Roll Call (subscription required) article published yesterday, the Senate deal stipulates that the temporary debt-ceiling raise have no amendments and that Republicans be able to offer amendments to a permanent debt-ceiling solution that the Senate is scheduled to take up the day after it returns from the holiday break on Jan. 20. The amendments will include:

a rescissions package authored by Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), a set of spending caps proposed by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), an amendment by Sen. John Thune (R-SD) sunsetting the Troubled Asset Relief Program, an amendment on the Environmental Protection Agency’s regulation of carbon dioxide emissions by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and a fiscal task force amendment by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH). [Sen. Harry] Reid (D-NV) will also offer a pay-as-you-go budgeting amendment.

The chances of these amendments passing is not great, nor are the chances that the House would pass anything similar, except PAYGO legislation, which the House passed on Dec. 3 when it extended the estate tax. As far as the "fiscal task force amendment," OMB Watch has laid out its opposition at length to the deficit commission that Gregg and a small group of nouveau deficit hawks has been pushing lately.

Image by Flickr user vanrooy 13 used under a Creative Commons license.

(Gary Therkildsen 12/23/09; 1 comment)

Blackwater/Xe, the Company You Can't Get Rid of

 

Yesterday, Justin Elliot at Talking Points Memo published an interesting piece on the never-ending saga that is the government's relationship with the company formerly known as Blackwater. Despite the scandals, investigations and indictments that have recently plagued Xe – and the resultant loss of a license to operate in Iraq and the cancellation of several security contracts overseas – the company continues to perform work for the State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Pentagon in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Blackwater, Go Home

According to Elliot, during a Dec. 12 hearing held by the Commission on Wartime Contracting, Xe Vice President Fred Roitz told commission members that the company "has contracts for security as well as for training Afghan police and a 'drug interdiction unit,'" and is "in the running for more work in Afghanistan." That work, says Spencer Ackerman at the Washington Independent, would be the continuation of a security contract to protect State Department personnel. And despite losing their license to operate in Iraq due to the 2007 Nisour Square Massacre in Bagdad that left 17 civilians dead, Xe continues to provide airborne security in that country.

Critics of Blackwater/Xe claim this is a public relations nightmare for the U.S. effort in Iraq and Afghanistan, but an equally important issue that the government's continued use of security contractors like Blackwater/Xe, Triple Canopy and DynCorp raises is the proper role of contractors in theaters of war. While the U.S. government has used contractors in combat theaters since the American Revolution, the use of armed security contractors to guard embassies and shuttle diplomatic dignitaries around with authorization to use lethal force is a new phenomenon. Many within transparency/good-government circles would classify these duties as inherently governmental functions, which mean that no one other than government employees should perform them.

Unfortunately, as Jeremy Scahill argues, because the Obama administration relies on these security contractors to implement its Middle East policies, one shouldn't expect that clarification on inherently governmental functions anytime soon.

Image by Flickr user rjosef used under a Creative Commons license.

(Gary Therkildsen 12/22/09; 2 comments)

EPA Seeking Comment on Disclosing Pesticide Ingredients

 

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it will begin accepting public comments on its proposal to require pesticide manufacturers to label pesticide ingredients. Currently, pesticide makers must label the "active" ingredients in a pesticide, but they are not required to identify the so called inert ingredients. "Inerts" often are toxic or otherwise harmful substances in their own right.

According to EPA, "Consumers deserve to know the identities of ingredients in pesticide formulations, including inert ingredients." Such disclosure "will empower consumers and pesticide users to make more informed choices.” [news release]

The EPA will soon publish in the Federal Register an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM), which is an early step toward reaching a final rule. As soon as the agency's proposal is published, the public will have 60 days to comment. EPA will likely seek comment on options for requiring disclosure of inert ingredients, such as which inert ingredients must be disclosed and whether a voluntary disclosure program would be adequate.

This proposed rulemaking is the agency's response to a pair of petitions, one submitted by the nonprofit group, Northwest Coalition for Alternatives to Pesticides, and a second by several State Attorneys General. The petitions called for requiring disclosure on labels of more than 350 inert pesticide ingredients that have been deemed hazardous.

The agency's response to the petitions is underlain by the sound understanding that the public has a right to know what is in the products they are using – especially if those ingredients are hazardous – and informed consumers can make better, safer choices. Moreover, those informed purchasing decisions will pressure pesticide manufacturers, who will no longer be allowed to hide hazardous ingredients as "trade secrets," to use less toxic inert ingredients in the products they manufacture.

(Brian Turnbaugh* 12/22/09; 1 comment)

A Busy Year for EPA’s Air Office

 

As the Washington Post reports today, EPA is temporarily delaying a decision to regulate coal ash, a toxic byproduct formed when smokestack scrubbers capture pollutants otherwise destined for the air. Today is the one-year anniversary of a major coal ash spill that sent a billion gallons of toxic goo cascading across hundreds of acres of land in eastern Tennessee. EPA regulation is necessary to prevent future disasters, environmentalists say.

Although EPA has slowed on coal ash, it has made strides elsewhere. In particular, EPA’s air office has had a busy year. (Coal ash regulation is actually under the purview of the water office.) This passage from the Post article jumped out at me:

"I don't think I've ever seen this many major proposals coming out this quickly," said Jeffrey R. Holmstead, who headed the EPA's air-pollution efforts under [President George W.] Bush. 

Mr. Holmstead may or may not have intended his comment as a plaudit for EPA, but I’m taking it as one. Look at some of the highlights from EPA’s air office so far this year:

  • Pledges to revise the national air quality standards for ozone and lead (proposals for both are expected soon);
  • A final determination declaring greenhouse gases a threat to public health and the environment;
  • A proposal to limit GHG emissions from passenger vehicles, and a separate proposal for power plants, factories, and other industrial facilities (final rules are expected in the spring of 2010);
  • A proposed strengthening of the national air quality standards for nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide (final decisions are expected in January 2010 and June 2010 respectively);
  • A final rule setting up a greenhouse gas reporting inventory with public access to the data;
  • A final rule curbing harmful emissions from large ships (announced today). 

In each of those cases, public health and environmental advocates have been generally positive about EPA's proposed and final decisions. (Nitrogen dioxide may be the exception, though EPA still has an opportunity to make progress there.)

For more on the Obama administration’s record on environmental and public health and safety issues, see OMB Watch’s regulatory policy year in review: http://ombwatch.org/node/10657.

(Matthew Madia 12/22/09; 0 comments)

OMB Releases New Last-Minute Recovery Act Jobs Guidance

 

While most of the nation's attention seems to have been focused on health care and budget issues as of late, the Office of Management and Budget has been hard at work on the Recovery Act recently. With the start of the second recipient reporting cycle rapidly approaching, on Friday OMB put out a new Recovery Act guidance, this one specifically addressing job creation estimates and data quality issues. These two areas have been huge problems for OMB and the Recovery Act in general, with many of the story lines from the last cycle focusing on terrible data quality and suspect job creation estimates. With the new guidance, OMB is hoping to head off some of these stories for the coming reporting cycle.

Overall, the guidance is very helpful. First, it lays out ways in which agencies can help recipients report better data. Agencies now are supposed to highlight for recipients data elements that have been shown to have significant errors, such as recipient name, award amount, and job creation estimates, with the hope that recipients will pay more attention to these sections when entering their data. The agencies also are instructed to have recipients examine their reports for logical inconsistencies, such as if a recipient reports having created a large number of jobs despite not yet starting a project.

Most of the document though, fourteen pages of the twenty-four page document, are dedicated to guidance on job creation estimates (so called "full time equivalents," or FTEs). The new guidance is surprisingly in-depth, providing multiple examples covering a range of possible scenarios. It even includes a worksheet at the end giving step-by-step instructions for how recipients should go about calculating FTEs.

Perhaps the most significant change in the new guidance is in this FTE section. In the previous reporting cycle, many recipients were confused about the distinction the OMB made between jobs created and jobs retained. Earlier guidance was not very clear about when a job should be counted as created or saved. Under the new guidance, however, this distinction is largely eliminated. Recipients now simply report FTEs based on the hours worked on Recovery Act funded projects, regardless of whether those hours were worked by a new or retained employee.

That said, the new guidance isn't perfect. Among other problems, the guidance is very, very late. OMB released it on the night of December 18, a Friday night a week before Christmas, meaning that agencies have less than a week to act on the new guidelines before the second reporting cycle beings on January 1. Because of this short turnaround time, it doesn't seem likely that much of this clarifying guidance will make it down to the recipients in time for the upcoming cycle.

At the same time, the guidance also includes several December 22 deadlines, which is today, the Tuesday after the Friday OMB published it. I imagine many agencies will not meet these deadlines, since, thanks to the epic Snowpocalypse of 2009, the federal government was not open on Monday, and is still not operating at full strength.

Finally, and perhaps most disappointingly, the guidance still does not provide for a standardized FTE. OMB still leaves it up to the recipient to decide how many hours constitute a "full time" job (although the new guidance changes the period of time an FTE should be measured by to a quarter, down from the life of a project). So despite all of the changes and positive clarifications delivered through the guidance, it will still be impossible to compare FTEs between recipients.

(Sam Rosen-Amy 12/22/09; 0 comments)

Bernanke Endorsed by Senate Banking Committee, Supports Limited Fed Audit

 

Yesterday, in a bipartisan vote, the Senate Banking Committee approved Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's nomination to a second term as Federal Reserve chairman. The vote wasn't in any doubt, although the closeness of the margin, 16 to 7, does indicate the contentiousness of Bernanke's nomination. The nomination now heads to the Senate floor, where, barring some crazy unforeseen calamity, he will be nominated to another four year term in January.

However, the partisan breakdown of the committee's vote is a stark reminder of how much the politics of the economy has changed since Bernanke first became the Fed chair. Bernanke sailed through his first confirmation hearing in November 2005, as the then-Republican controlled Banking Committee approved him by voice vote. The hearings were so inconsequential that Senator John McCain, when asked about the nomination in January 2006, two months after the hearings, reportedly had no idea that the hearings had already happened.

Fast forward to today, when six of the seven no votes came from Republican senators. Senator Jim Bunning, to his credit, opposed Bernanke both times in committee. Ironically, Bunning's original reason for opposition in 2005 was that Bernanke was not "independent" enough, and would just be a rubber stamp for then-Chair Alan Greenspan's policies. Little did Bunning know that Bernanke's first term in office would be characterized by a dramatic undoing of Greenspan's legacy.

Bernanke Supports Limited Audit

In another piece of news from Bernanke's committee confirmation, in a letter responding to written questions from two committee members, Bernanke hesitantly endorsed limited audits of the Federal Reserve. Saying that audits "could provide Congress and the public additional comfort" that the Fed is acting in a responsible manner, Bernanke pledged to work with members of Congress to implement "a review of the operational integrity of these facilities," one that would "be structured so as not to involve a review of the monetary policy aspects of the facility." With his letter, Bernanke seems to be trying to strike a compromise with Audit the Fed supporters, allowing audits of some programs while protecting the Fed's monetary policy from oversight.

The key is which "facilities" Bernanke is referencing. The programs he specifically states are the central bank's emergency lending programs. These are the broader credit programs, not the single, institution specific loans, such as the loans to AIG, Citigroup, and Bear Stearns (remember them?), since these single institution loans are already subject to oversight by the Government Accountability Office. However, it isn't clear if the loans to foreign banks, which were also done under the emergency powers of the Fed, are included in Bernanke's idea of a limited audit. This detail is important, since the foreign bank program is the main target of the Fed audit. If that program is not on the table, then Bernanke's statement is relatively meaningless, politically.

The House passed its Audit the Fed provision as part of the larger financial reform package, so we'll see what happens in the Senate as it begins the final rounds of its financial reform debate. As of right now, the Senate's reform package does not include an audit provision, but with Bernanke's cautious approval of a limited audit, that might change.

Image by Flickr user talkradionews used under a Creative Commons license.

(Sam Rosen-Amy 12/18/09; 4 comments)

This Week in Deficit Hawks

  Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

On Thursday, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), in an attempt to become more "relevant," held a hearing in search of fiscal remedies to the country's growing $12 trillion debt. Rather than provide a platform for exploring different options, though, Lieberman lined up witnesses to trumpet a special congressional commission that could railroad budget "solutions" through Congress. Lieberman, along with several of his hearing witnesses, has joined a small but vocal choir of deficit-hawk-converts that are demanding the government address budget shortfalls immediately, seemingly without regard to current fiscal circumstances.

The first panel at Lieberman's economic scare-fest was the chair and ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, Sens. Kent Conrad (D-ND) and Judd Gregg (R-NH) respectively, who talked up their recently introduced legislation to create the Bipartisan Task Force for Responsible Fiscal Action (BTFRFA?). When debuted, Jonathan Chait at The New Republic labeled the bill "insane" because it would require 14 out of 18 commission members to agree on any recommendations before the group could send them off to Congress, and then would require supermajorities in both chambers to pass any commission proposals.

As Chait facetiously remarked, the only way Conrad and Gregg could have set the bar any higher would have been to "require the commission members to create a cold fusion reactor or retrieve a magical ring from inside a volcano." But it's important to note that the two senators may have inserted those tough requirements because they recognized that a small group of sitting politicians entrusted with binding recommendation powers over the budget process could produce some horrendous results.

In an earlier piece on deficit commissions, I claimed that it would be difficult for a small group of congressional members "to make sound decisions about long-term deficit policy" because they're "prey to the powers of moneyed interests and subject to the short-term whims of electoral politics." If Congress tasks a commission to look at "all aspects of the current and long-term financial condition of the federal government," I want to know that cuts to discretionary spending are just as likely to come from defense as they are from social programs; the Conrad/Gregg commission all but guarantees that that wouldn't be the case.

Moreover, I hardly believe now is the time for such a commission. I wrote earlier this month that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) had it right when she argued that Congress has to focus on job production before it starts to cut spending in order to balance the budget. Despite what some economists may claim about the end of the Great Recession, the country is still hurting in terms of employment and the government must continue to inject money into the economy to keep it going. Once unemployment is under control and the economy is relatively stable, Congress can begin to tackle the deficit through some combination of entitlement/spending cuts and tax increases.

Image by Flickr user BiggerPictureImages.com used under a Creative Commons license.

(Gary Therkildsen 12/18/09; 1 comment)

FEC Proposes Rules to Comply With EMILY’s List Decision

 

On Dec. 17, the Federal Election Commission (FEC) proposed rules that would limit donations to some nonprofit groups that engage in campaign activity after the Justice Department announced that it would not appeal the EMILY’s List decision.

The FEC decided in late October that it would not appeal the decision, but Solicitor General Elena Kagan still had the option to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. Additionally legal analysts were split on if she also had the option of "seeking en banc review, or whether that was a choice left to the FEC," according to the Supreme Court of the United States Blog. Kagan’s decision not to appeal leaves the verdict intact.

In EMILY’s List, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit struck down the FEC regulations, ruling that they violated EMILY's List's speech rights under the U.S. Constitution.

The rules that were struck down "called for EMILY's List and other similar PACs to use at least 50 percent FEC-regulated hard money for activities linked to federal candidates. Another FEC rule struck by the court provides that contributions solicited on the basis of support or opposition to federal candidates must follow FEC hard money limits," according to BNA.($$)

The current rules will remain in effect until the rulemaking process is complete, but the 2010 edition of the FEC’s code of regulations will note that the rules are "no longer in effect" due to the decision in the EMILY’s List case, according to BNA.

(Lateefah Williams* 12/18/09; 0 comments)

Is the Senate Going to Allow the Estate Tax to Die?

 

According to a Wall Street Journal article published this morning, efforts to pass some sort of estate tax extension in the upper chamber broke down late Wednesday afternoon. It seems the Democratic caucus can't agree on whether to permanently or temporarily extend 2009 estate tax levels. Though legislators are already promising to address the issue as soon as they return from the holidays, there is still time left to pass something. OMB Watch and a host of other organizations have submitted a letter to the Senate urging them to take action. Ironically enough for those who would champion the tax's death on Jan. 1, the consequences of inaction for small businesses and farms are costlier than extension.

R.I.P, Estate Tax...For Now

In a new report from the authoritative Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), Chuck Marr and Gillian Brunet show that "the number of people likely to face tax increases [because] of congressional inaction on the estate tax far exceeds the number of wealthy people who would secure a tax cut." This is due to a "little-known provision" in the 2001 Bush Tax Cuts that would pile up a new capital gains tax burden on many small businesses and family farms that never would have owed any estate tax.

The current estate tax exemption of $7 million for couples ($3.5 million for individuals) touches only a tiny number of estates in this country each year. Moreover, the small numbers of estates that owe any tax pay "less than one-fifth of the estate’s value...in estate taxes." However, expiration of the estate tax will trigger a change in the tax treatment of unrealized capital gains in estates.

Currently, heirs of an estate do not pay taxes on unrealized capital gains. This means that if an estate passes on a stock that the decedent purchased for $10 but is now worth $100, the heir does not pay taxes on the $90 of appreciation when selling the stock. With expiration of the estate tax, heirs will now have to pay taxes on that appreciation. This is particularly important to family farms and small businesses because often, "the primary asset in a family farm or small business estate is the farm or business itself, which has increased substantially in value over time but the owner has never paid capital gains tax on that increase."

There are exemptions that would moderate the impact of the tax, but, according to CBPP, the change in the tax treatment of unrealized capital gains in estates would rope in some 62,500 new estates, and farms and small business estates would "constitute a disproportionately large share of this group." Indeed, the only group the expiration of the estate tax would help would be the wealthiest 4,590 estates in the country.

Opponents of the estate tax in the Senate, mainly conservative Democrats and the Republican caucus, have refused to work with the Democratic leadership to extend the tax even temporarily to allow further debate on the issue. The Wall Street Journal article cited Republicans "cheering" the impending temporary demise of the estate tax because it would provide leverage for achieving a lower rate when the expected reintroduction of the estate tax occurs. It's sad that opponents of the estate tax who say they are advocates of farms and small family businesses would play with the livelihoods of farmers and small business owners just to score political points in the future.

Image by Flickr user Tammra McCauley used under a Creative Commons license.

(Gary Therkildsen 12/17/09; 1 comment)

In Drinking Water, What’s Legal Can Be Poisonous

 

In another of The New York Times’ startling articles on the state of U.S. waters, Charles Duhigg reports on the myriad chemicals polluting drinking water supplies and regulators’ inability to manage them.

The whole article is worth reading for its insights into public health, public policy, and even public relations. On the regulatory front, it seems like it boils down to essentially two problems.

First, for contaminants for which drinking water standards do exist, the standards are too high. “For instance, the drinking water standard for arsenic, a naturally occurring chemical used in semiconductor manufacturing and treated wood, is at a level where a community could drink perfectly legal water, and roughly one in every 600 residents would likely develop bladder cancer over their lifetimes, according to studies commissioned by the E.P.A. and analyzed by The Times.”

Second, too many contaminants are completely unregulated – and the more time that passes without regulation, the longer the queue grows, as new chemicals enter into commerce.

The Times article examines the Safe Water Drinking Act and EPA’s enforcement of it. A major component of EPA’s implementation of the Act is the contaminant candidate list, a catalog of chemicals “that are currently not subject to any proposed or promulgated national primary drinking water regulations, that are known or anticipated to occur in public water systems, and which may require regulation,” according to the EPA. The list is to be updated every 5 years.

The good news is that In October EPA updated the list which now includes 116 contaminants, up from 51 in 2005, according to EPA’s website. (The ’05 update was late.) Recognizing the growing concern over hormone-imitating compounds in the water supply, EPA added to the final candidate list nine hormones that weren’t on an earlier draft list, according to BNA news service (subscription).

The bad news is that EPA never follows through. In July 2003 and again in July 2008, EPA announced its final determination that no regulation was necessary for contaminants on the list. The next round of determinations – or lack thereof – is due by 2013.

(Matthew Madia 12/17/09; 32 comments)