CBO 2009 Deficit Projection Tops $1 Trillion

 

The Congressional Budget Office released its annual report on the ten-year budget and economic outlook. In 2009, CBO projects that the federal budget deficit will be $1.2 trillion. At 8.3 percent of GDP, that number would "shatter the previous post-World War II record high of 6.0 percent" And, that doesn't include a economic rescue package that will likely be well over $700 billion.

In FY 2008, the deficit was $455 billion (3.2 percent of GDP), so why the massive increase (and remember, this does not include an economic recovery bill)? CBO projects that in 2009:

  • TARP expenditures will add over $180 billion
  • Federal conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will add $238 billion
  • Revenues will decline by $166 billion
  • Plus, the declining economy will increase eligibility rates for participation in other spending programs like nutrition assistance, unemployment insurance, and Medicaid

(Craig Jennings 01/07/09)

Comments

How do you come up with these

How do you come up with these figures? I see no standard deviations or correlations. Presumably you are running a multipe regression, but on which (and how many) variables? Has anything changed since these projections were made? Not exactly my idea of transparency.

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