The House Budget Committee held a hearing on June 24 on the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Act of 2009, which was recently introduced by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD). During the hearing, House members focused on the enforcement mechanisms in PAYGO, the significant exemptions granted under the proposed legislation, and whether the bill is the appropriate method to reinstate fiscal discipline in Congress.

Deficits not "cut in half" in 5 years.

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) September 2004 "The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" shows a baseline projection of a $422 billion deficit for 2004, and $348 billion for 2005. The 10-year baseline projections show a $2.3 trillion deficit over the next ten years; however, as the report notes, the baseline is not intended to be a good predictor of actual budgetary outcomes. A better predictor of budget deficits under "current policy" would put the deficit for 2005 at $405 billion and the 10-year deficit over $5.5 trillion.

With the increase in retirees necessitating increased Social Security and Medicare expenditures, the situation is not projected to improve after 2014 either, unless, of course, the direction of current policy is significantly changed. The CBO's report demonstrates that freezing discretionary spending will not solve the deficit problem; and that not extending the Bush tax cuts helps more, but also won't completely solve the longer term problem.

As the CBO put it "[e]ven if the economy grows more rapidly than projected, significant long-term strains on the budget will start to intensify within the next decade as the baby-boom generation begins to reach retirement age." Download full report (.pdf)

During last year’s debate on the Prescription Drug and Medicare Improvement Act of 2003, Congress used an outlay cost estimate of $395 billion for the new program. However, in the president’s 2005 budget, the 10-year outlay cost was estimated to be $534 billion – 35 percent greater than the initial estimate. See Table S-13, Page 387, 2005 budget..